Your Tuesday evening is my Tuesday morning for Jeanne I guess.
The GFS and GFDL are probably still too far east, although the GFS did make a shift left this morning.
The N.C. coast is looking more and more like it is going to get a pretty good shot too, and I actually expect a second landfall there if it does go back out over the water first.
Phil, in our area, (or at least mine, but likely yours to a degree) a front is expected to stall besides, which is a good recipe for heavy rains. First things first though.
Even though the forecast has been consistent in a sharp turn, I question whether it will actually be able to do that that quickly.
JB's comments were interesting, and I see where he is coming from-the thought did cross my mind to a degree also.
BTW, I am ignoring the ETA until or unless it is over land. It's been leaning over to the left for the last several storms too long, and too far. I don't think it was designed for these situations either, although its upstream forecasts can be useful. Remember, it had Ivan crossing the Yucatan for many runs.
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