I don't think I was clear in that last post...Max Mayfield is feeling a little concerned about this:
"ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK."
THey are getting more data that suggests these models are on to something. The 11pm advisory will probably have this information in the modeling and I am anxious to see the 00Z model runs.
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