around this time of year low pressure areas in the tropics and subtropics that linger or meander cut off from the westerlies start to illicit the first shreds of suspicion. at least the global models start to do things with them that don't look very winter-like. i'm in no way implying that either of these features are real development candidates, just front-runners of the transition into a summer pattern. gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low. gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something. HF 1544z02may
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