Quote: You can kind of see the ridge east of florida in this image. If it builds westward it could either force the storm more westward, or trap it to let it meander a bit and then escape to the Northeast. If it weakens or receeds, it would allow for more easterly movement. It's all speculation though. I'm not one of the Mets (Sky Blue names now!) so I'm out of my leauge on this talk.
I think most of the guidance indicates a weakening/eastward shift of the bermuda ridge. The UKMET model seems to be an outlier now compared to the GFDL, FSUMM5, GFS, NOGAPS, & Canadian. The european model is the only one now showing a stronger ridge & thus it pushes the storm more NW into NO. While the ridge appears to be weakening, the track of Dennis will tend to slide along its western perhipery. I don't see anything that causes the ridge to completely collaspe or be shoved dramtically eastward - such as a large mid-latitude trof. So the storm will likely "turn" north at some point, not hook NE like Charley. Where it turns north of course is the million dollar (or should I say billion dollar question). Current trends suggest somewhere west of key west but it could be as far east as the middle keys, which would drive it northward up the center of the peninsula.
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