This is the key tropical component although he does mention a threat 10 days out a little further west than whatever we get out of this storm off the GA/FL coast. I pretty much agree with him that there are 3 distinct areas right now - the upper low pulling out, the convection off St. Aug/Jax and the low pressure down near Central America with the curved signature bands. They all look like eventual NE/ENE candidates to me.
>>I feel that its time to quit monkeying around here and make a forecast, and my idea is for a hybrid type development, not tropical in nature, to pop off the Florida coast tomorrow and then come north to near Hatteras, but turn out, not come up as it appears the recurving Alma will start the progression of the ridge later this week, and since there is no upstream blocking the northern part of the trof picks that up and progresses while the weaker southern part splits for the gulf this weekend. The second part in the western Caribbean southwest of Jamaica is where we have the true attempt at late season development. While totally open on the western side, one can see banded thunderstorms southeast of the low level center so right now we may be in day one of the usual 3-5 days it takes fore development. This looks like it should move north or north : northeast the next few days and assuming the ideas above are correct on changes north of it, it is an offshore problems. I guess in a worst case it can sit down there for 5 days and wait for the next cycle of trof splitting, but I doubt it. Chances are it gets off the playing field and that means whatever mischief that could start next week has to start anew. A case of robbery.
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