things are finally looking more interesting tonight. the caribbean low is about the same, but the very fact that the turning persists despite there being removed convection suggests that maybe '90L' is still trying to happen. there is still westerly shear over the system, just have to wait and see if it came overcome.
far more interesting is the deepening low east of florida tonight. the piece of upper cutoff energy is finally showing a surface reflection, and this low has the half-convective appearance of a hybrid. it doesnt seem to be developing in a strictly tropical environment, but mind this system does seem to be wandering westward and the waters out there are marginal. though there isnt a consensus, one of my personal favorites, the ncep 7day, is drifting it to the coast while slowly deepening, and then southwest inland as a weakening trough towards the gulf.
oh the speculation of it all. had the models been correct five days ago our system would be a gale center lashing the coast away southeast from here.. far as i can see it is just a pesky disturbance showing some signs of life tonight.
anyway whether we have something by friday or not, the 31st is when gray gives us his start of the season forecast. at least we know we'll get something this week.
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