nhc's initial prog of the new depression is close to what i was thinking/commenting on earlier. i've got a hunch that this one is going to reach the united states around july 18/19... the evolving pattern doesn't look like it will offer a recurvature route at sea (unless the models are totally out to lunch on building the ridge back) what kind of storm it is at the time will largely depend upon how many islands it smacks into on the way, is my reckoning. i was thinking the ne caribbean... virgin islands, maybe puerto rico would have the storm pass close by july 14/15... and that it would get to the north of hispaniola before getting under the solid western extent of the ridge. florida was the first place that occured to me.. i guess it could either north or south of there, though. but anyway, it's a depression. the globals aren't initializing it well (or at least the ones i saw earlier), so all of these ideas are logically derived from imperfect models.. not reliable yet. just encouraging to see that the nhc came to a similar conclusion. after the job they did with dennis.. that's one of the best forecast storms i've ever seen from them. HF 0547z11july
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