With improved organization during the evening hours, Tropical Storm Emily has formed out of T.D. #5 in the central Atlantic. Current forecast tracks take it into the Caribbean and along the northern edge of it possibly into the Bahamas after crossing Hispaniola. The center is still in the organization stages, so the forecast track & intensity is somewhat cloudy (no pun intended), but model guidance is fairly well clustered now despite that.
Emily is expected to become a hurricane when it nears the islands, with the potential to become another major hurricane if it misses Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to the north. If not, interaction with the landmasses will likely cause the storm to weaken, utlimately impacting its intensity and track as it draws nearer to the southeast United States.
Another wave southeast of Emily by 800 miles or so is showing signs of organization too, so we may have something else to watch soon. If it develops into a named system, it would set a record for the most named storms in the Atlantic before August. Conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development across the entire basin, something that does not bode well in the short-term or over the long haul of this hurricane season.
More to come later... in the meantime, look at the blogs below for more Emily information.
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