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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Mesovortex
      Sat Sep 21 2002 03:24 PM

utterly weird. thought the eye feature bobbing up and down on satelite looked strange.. guess this explains some of it. think this explains the stall also and until it is worked out the westward motion will be jiggy and erratic.
pretty much everybody but ukmet now has recurvature. 12z runs are coming out and nogaps has already gone back to bending the system sw for a while at least. looked at the hpc/ncep plots and got a strange show.. on it izzy moves to within maybe 150 miles of brownsville on friday morning, but by saturday is well ene of there, about 100 miles off the louisiana coast. dont think that one will hold water, but seeing the sharper recurvature sort of worried me.
go take a look at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcsttxt.html
noted that the storm is further intensified on most models. safe to assume we will be dealing with a cat 4 shortly.
what to do with kyle.. some models turn it west in a couple of days, some just leave it floundering like a bug on a pin. on satelite it looks like the surface and upper centers are decoupled.. have to see if it realigns or what. the disagreement by different height centers on what kyle wants to do tells me at least that it is changing direction, that it's done going north for now. the earlier westward models have backed off for now, though.
92L and the system around the bahamas are pure mysteries at this point. 92L obviously isnt developing as fast as guidance wants it to, and seems to be staying well to the south. i dont picture the strong system in the northern islands, but the weak, west moving one in the southern islands. the complex upper system east of florida.. several places low level systems could form around here, and probably more than one will try. hard to say which will be the victor out of this.. but the southern system avn first advertised and other models have caught on to.. is becoming more credible.
back when gustav was passing hatteras on september 10th, i figured that the active span was done.. but here we are on the 21st and were up to k, with probably one or two more on the way. the old 12-8-4 prediction from november is now threatened, just as the official ones have already gone down. those ludicrous high guesscasts some of you made last fall that i inwardly scoffed at are now within reach.. have to wonder. K storm on september 21st.. last time we paced this high was 1995. actually reached K on august 27th that year, but were still on M at this date.
HF 1918z21september

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander MikeCAdministrator Sat Sep 21 2002 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Rick   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:19 PM
. * * West is best Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander andy1tom   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Ricreig   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:00 PM
. * * stalling Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Jeanine   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:22 PM
. * * Ed Dunham MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Ed Dunham Southern4sure   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM
. * * 13L HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 13L jlauderdal   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:58 PM
. * * FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:10 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:00 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:20 PM
. * * Hey Joe ... you saw it too Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Hey Joe ... you saw it too joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:31 PM
. * * 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 22.1 and 86.3?????? Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 06:12 PM
. * * NW... I'm positive now Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:43 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:07 PM
. * * Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:19 PM
. * * Here's something to chew on... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:27 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:37 PM
. * * Re: The Spider is squished again joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Mesovortex Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander BabyCat   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:56 PM
. * * Bad Reporting by Media Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 11:32 AM
. * * shared ponderings HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:09 PM
. * * Isidore looking classic now... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Isidore looking classic now... Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:38 PM
. * * Preparations done at my house... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Mike   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:16 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments recmod   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:32 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Anonymous   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: scottsvb's Comments Joe   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:46 PM
. * * nhc 1pm HanKFranK   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:12 PM
. * * NOT MOVING RICKINMOBILE   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:06 PM
. * * Re: NOT MOVING joepub1   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Scottsvb Kevin   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:00 PM
. * * WIndows... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:27 PM
. * * Re: WIndows... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 02:29 PM
. * * subject of boarding up.... Frank P   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:26 PM
. * * Re: subject of boarding up.... scottsvb   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:30 PM
. * * scott... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:34 PM
. * * Here are the latest model plots I can find. Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:40 PM
. * * One last note for now before the 1pm update comes out... Steve   Sat Sep 21 2002 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Rasvar   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Preparations done at my house... Justin in Miami   Sat Sep 21 2002 12:38 PM

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