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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
      Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 AM

thought i'd use the old header from a couple days ago when irene was supposed to have recurved already. thought i'd keep things fair and balanced after all, so ralphfl doesn't start calling me a wishcaster.
speaking of wishcasting... every time there's a weak storm moving north of the islands progged to come west the references to andrew start.. andrew did this, andrew did that.. a cat 5 analog is after all the best thing to use in every situation, as cat 5 hurricanes happen almost every week. really, i saw some smart person toss in dora of 1964... not bad. dora was already a great deal stronger, but the evolving pattern may be something of that ilk.
anywho, the status. irene is being sheared at different heights... northerly shear very high up, sw shear associated with the upper trough that missed it at the outflow levels. this pattern caused irene's brief improvement overnight to result in a decoupling today.. the mlc is still trailing the llc a tad at this hour. dry environment, persisting shear and stack problems (real disorganization in my book) are keeping it moving just south of west and not allowing it to strengthen. of course there are still models killing irene (gfdl and lots of the globals have been losing it for days).. but irene isn't going to die. the scenario that bastardi outlined is coming into play with the escape hatch being the reorganization of the ridge around fri-sat. if irene is far enough north at that time.. it'll do something like felix 1995 did. if irene isn't... it'll come west like a rocket next week and hit somebody like a ton of bricks around wed. irene has probably been at t.s. status all day (and yesterday... t-numbers are usually a little low on sheared systems with sporadic convection... the llc with irene has been solid). should get the official upgrade tomorrow and move west a little more quickly.. slow down around the weekend.. and either meander near bermuda next week or be accelerating and deepening under the ridge. potential impact is still tuesday, august 16th at earliest. it isn't certain by any means... but the configuration is there if the storm evolves correctly to verify what joe b has cooking up.
other areas... wave train is depressed, but an itcz focal area near 45w may activate as a tropical wave approaches. there's good low level convergence, a kick from a wave may start something. there's already a weak trough trailing se from irene leading up from there.. there's the potential pathway.
that little swirl i was eyeballing yesterday tracked south of puerto rico.. showed well on radar.. then there it was running south of hispaniola today. tomorrow morning it should be passing jamaica if it hasnt' become indistinct. hostile shear conditions present, but they are lessening. that little bugger had better be gone tomorrow.. it's like an baby evil clown or something. creepy.
still waiting on the home brew. not expecting. there's a couple of weak impulses moving up ahead of the shortwave near the mid atlantic (hopefully what will pull irene out of from the starting gate)... nothing doing. weak low still near the fl/ga/al confluence... keeping it moist over the southeast day after day.
t.s. fernanda in the eastpac has come up, so the atlantic should go active in a week or so. that relationship works often enough in this type of season. the ensemble means have ridging near the east coast for days... better hope the ridge is amplified rather than zonal to the east.. otherwise this is going to be a long month.
HF 0435z10august

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* Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* wulrich   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:41 PM
. * * No model is that accurate at Day 7 or 8! berrywr   Wed Aug 10 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Spoken   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land JG   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:08 PM
. * * History of Andrew similar....(conditions)... Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:13 PM
. * * Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)... Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:27 PM
. * * don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:07 PM
. * * i dont think Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: i dont think oil trader   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: i dont think Random Chaos   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:20 PM
. * * Re: i dont think damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: i dont think Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: i dont think CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:47 PM
. * * Re: i dont think damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:44 PM
. * * Re: i dont think Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land RyanRedCrosser   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Big Kahuna   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land wulrich   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Risk's updated August forecast doug   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land et1516   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land NONAME   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land WeatherNut   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land HanKFranK   Wed Aug 10 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land lawgator1   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Hootowl   Sun Aug 07 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land mbrown   Sun Aug 07 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land BillD   Sun Aug 07 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Aug 07 2005 07:11 PM
. * * Administrative Notes - Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 07 2005 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land NONAME   Sun Aug 07 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Frank P   Sun Aug 07 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 07 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Frank P   Sun Aug 07 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Irene and Shear danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 07 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene and Shear Spoken   Sun Aug 07 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene and Shear Steve H1   Sun Aug 07 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene and Shear Random Chaos   Sun Aug 07 2005 11:21 PM
. * * march of the weaklings HanKFranK   Mon Aug 08 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: march of the weaklings Bloodstar   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:36 AM
. * * Irene Name Susan in Jupiter, FL   Mon Aug 08 2005 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Name Major7   Mon Aug 08 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Irene Name Lysis   Mon Aug 08 2005 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Name Ed in Va   Mon Aug 08 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Irene Name NewWatcher   Mon Aug 08 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Ron Basso   Mon Aug 08 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? HanKFranK   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? LI Phil   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Steve H1   Mon Aug 08 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Harvey&Irene Ryan   Mon Aug 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Irene ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 08 2005 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 08 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 08 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Steve H1   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? ronjon   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Old Sailor   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Spoken   Mon Aug 08 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Rabbit   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Irene Possible Upgrade? rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Possible Upgrade? damejune2   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene Possible Upgrade? rmbjoe1954   Mon Aug 08 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Possible Upgrade? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 08 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Irene Possible Upgrade? Ryan   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene Possible Upgrade? Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? Clark   Mon Aug 08 2005 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Downgrade? superfly   Mon Aug 08 2005 05:35 PM
. * * strength versus track disneyfanfl   Mon Aug 08 2005 06:16 PM
. * * Re: strength versus track Ron Basso   Mon Aug 08 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: strength versus track Rob1966   Mon Aug 08 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: strength versus track Ron Basso   Mon Aug 08 2005 08:45 PM
. * * South of Puerto Rico Edubrasileiro   Mon Aug 08 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: South of Puerto Rico Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 08 2005 08:30 PM
. * * Re: South of Puerto Rico Spoken   Mon Aug 08 2005 09:01 PM
. * * comments on the day HanKFranK   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: comments on the day Clark   Mon Aug 08 2005 11:25 PM
. * * Re: comments on the day J.C.   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day LONNY307   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:43 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day zacros   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day abyrd   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:28 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day FlaMommy   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day nl   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:41 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Ed in Va   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:53 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:21 AM
. * * The Facts on Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: The Facts on Irene Ed in Va   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: The Facts on Irene Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: The Facts on Irene Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:39 AM
. * * Re: The Facts on Irene Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:49 AM
. * * Irene... Beach   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene... nl   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NONAME   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Spoken   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene... scottsvb   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene... meto   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene... rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene... tpratch   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Username   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NewWatcher   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:03 PM
. * * if a storm reaches a 4 or a 5....look what happens inside of 'em Rick on boat in Mobile   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene... VolusiaMike   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Fletch   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NewWatcher   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NewWatcher   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NewWatcher   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NewWatcher   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene... doug   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene... emackl   Tue Aug 09 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Ed in Va   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Spoken   Tue Aug 09 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene... damejune2   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Lysis   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Ed in Va   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene... scottsvb   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Rabbit   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NONAME   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene... Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 09 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Irene... NONAME   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene... rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 12:53 PM
. * * HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene Clark   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene Brad in Miami   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene Ryan   Tue Aug 09 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Ron Basso   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day susieq   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Reaper   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:49 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Wxwatcher2   Tue Aug 09 2005 10:08 AM
. * * activation HanKFranK   Tue Aug 09 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Steve H1   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:04 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day zacros   Tue Aug 09 2005 07:08 AM
. * * Re: comments on the day Old Sailor   Mon Aug 08 2005 10:59 PM
. * * take a glance HF at work   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: take a glance MapMaster   Mon Aug 08 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene Name AgentB   Mon Aug 08 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Irene and Shear dem05   Mon Aug 08 2005 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Floridacane   Sun Aug 07 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land TxFloodAdjuster   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land B.C.Francis   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land StormTrooper   Tue Aug 09 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land wulrich   Sun Aug 07 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Floridacane   Sun Aug 07 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Frank P   Sun Aug 07 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Clark   Sun Aug 07 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land J.C.   Sun Aug 07 2005 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land Random Chaos   Sun Aug 07 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 07 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* oil trader   Sun Aug 07 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land MikeG   Sun Aug 07 2005 04:40 PM

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