georgia, huh? well, historically there have been some to come straight in out of the e/se. that section of coastline should get hit every 15-25 yrs, but they've been phenominally lucky for a long time. last major was in 1898. irene will have to get further west without intensifying to threaten ne fl/ga (unless the ridge is progged too far east/too weak)... carolinas esp. nc more likely. that's climo talking... as it gets closer in and we've got a better fix on the ridge evolution/intensity of irene.. both will determine the exact track. i expect the track to slalom rather than stair-step.. once the center gets more well established. right now convection is finally in a single curved band near the center rather than spotty around the mlc/llc. the two may be stacked right now. the outflow pattern is becoming anticyclonic and shear is not as apparent. irene will probably speed up tomorrow, slow as a shortwave comes by, speed up again, slow again late in the weekend as another shortwave comes by.. and from there it's a headscratcher. some of the models have the western periphery of the ridge weak and take it up near nc... maybe even missing the cape... others have it stronger and have the storm heading for ga/sc. as the ridge waxes and wanes, weakening and rebuidling.. irene should wiggle along its track.. but generally move wnw. i'm pretty sure the intensity forecast is too low... irene will be moving west under a ridge with a favorable outflow pattern... major hurricane in my book. i'm gonna be at the coast sat-mon, so the group i'm with may end up being chased out by hurricane watches. will see. clark already gave the basic info on how the basin should activate in the next week. i'll add that fernanda in the eastpac is trying to gain company. my thought is that we'll probably be looking at more than one new storm in the next two weeks. considering that it's august 10th that's nothing abnormal. end of the month should have the eastern atlantic cranking. twc mentioning a system near south america? there's a low-level trough with ridging aloft east of the islands. lots of dry air nearby.. nothing should develop quickly. waves further east getting perkier. nothing like an invest there just yet. site got kind of messy earlier today while i was in class. want everybody to consider the rules/choice of forum for your posts to keep things running smooth. ideally nobody will have to moderate the forum, but we'll talk things over with folks before taking action against disregard for the rules. HF 0001z11august
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