craigm -- water vapor looks at the middle levels of the atmosphere, generally from 300-600mb.
Irene looks to becoming a bit better organized tonight, with the LLC on the NW side of the deep convection. It should be a TS again at 11p; if not then, definitely by 5a. It'll probably perk up a bit more overnight during the diurnal convective maximum -- not a lot, however -- before settling down into tomorrow. Threat is there for anywhere along the SE coast...Florida is lessening the further north this gets. Don't feel it's a S Florida storm, but not ready to sound an "all clear" south of Cape Canaveral just yet. Time frame...Monday-Tuesday most likely.
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