Quote: I live 50 miles south of Tampa. I am wondering if the storm will affect us here; affect as in within 75 miles of the center.
The models? I don't understand them, but i do know this - they have been all over the place. Now i see the BAM models going back to the wnw....and one of the other models, (gfdl?) is more to the left or west.
Never rule yourself out if you're within several hundred miles of the cone. However, you're across FL from the closest it could make landfall. At worst you'd probably get a remnant Tropical Storm. And better (for you...not me) is that the storm seems to be tracking north of you on the models. But the models have been very inconsistant on this storm. I don't trust them much beyond a general direction.
Note: Don't quote me on this!
As for the models themselves: Basically they are tracking the long term "best guess" of the center of circulation and/or low pressure. They are very complex statistical models that take into account all kinds of variables for developing a guess at long range conditions. Rarely are they super-accurate, and with tropical systems, even decent accuracy is sometimes lacking. Generally a median of all the models is a good guess for storm tracks, then thrown on a random 15-20 degree cone around it.
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