Part of the reason I think the storm is going to induce headaches for the next couple of days is the back and forth 'tail wagging' (hey, someone said that phrase, and I thought it was apropos to what we are seeing now). Either you take the models and discount the ones you think are either over emphesizing something or are missing a feature that may impact the track.
Personally I'm sticking with the, 'weaker is west' mantra. and the more disorganized the storm remains, the better the chances it will not turn north at all. Of course, that's not a suprise. I just think it needs to be emphesized. The course of this particular storm is very dependant onthe intensity and organization.
The storm looks like half a storm, with the dry air absolutely killing the convection on the western semicircle. Perhaps it'll get better over night, but I suspect for at least the next day or two, it won't strengthen much (if at all) and that seems to indicate a west motion (as per the general track the last several days).
I'm still not confident. of anything at this point, but if the winds stay about the same for the next 36 hours, I have a fairly confident idea where the storm will hit.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 113121
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center