Irene looks like it is solidifying a convection core. The center which had been open to the south has now become completley surrounded with convection...still very little going on in the west and south though and it presents with an almost straight line oriented ese-wnw cloud coverage along the southern and western reaches of the overcast area giving an elongated appearance. Outflow exists vigorously only on the north and some less vigorous outflow on the east...nothing in the west northwest or south. Convection does not seem to be building above the mid levels. All of this is why the intensity estimates are probably accurate for now. If the development around the center can maintain and it may as it proceeds toward warm water it can still pull itself together into a hurricane. I don't see the dissapation the GFS called for, bur it is still pretty fragile. I see nothing to suggest it is a hurricane now. No reason to think it will not continue wnw especially if strengthening continues, as I cannot evaluate the relative strength of the ridge or the timing of the trough. Florida should be safe though.
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