This year the models seem to have been much more reliable especially out to 72 hours...last year they were awful... didnot have any clue on the ridge....see if the end game in this one is not within the cone at the 5 day mark I think it will be. When you consider that the cone may cover 500-600 miles of coast line at 5 days that may seem like a huge absolute difference for the coast line involved, but when considered against the entire potential surface thatcould be effected that is the equivilant of a pin hole. So on a relative scale I think it is pretty good accuracy. Remember the weather is a dynamic interaction of unstable gases and other forces which can change in an instant. I did not follow up on becoming a met because I could not handle the physics!
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