Sorry for the long copy but I need it to make a point here.
Per NHC's 5 PM Discussion:
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG 70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF DISSIPATING IRENE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND MAINTAINING AN EAST- WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS.
I dunno about most of you, but I read alot of doubt into the 5 PM discussion. When the MET says "Alleged" weakness in the ridge after 72 hrs this doesn't sound confident. In addition, what's bothering me about this storm is that the GFS and CMC have consistently dissipated this storm over the last 2-3 days of model runs along with the GFDL which one run its a tropical storm and then the next run is an open wave. Like the NHC states, the NOGAPs and UKMET create a huge storm that dwarfs the ridge, thereby allowing it to slice thru it. So, overall, we don't have any model consensus. Usually with a stronger storm, we may have differing tracks but we don't have 2 models evaporating the storm and 2 models creating a mega-storm. I think the NHC is scratching their heads, too, over its path in the long range (3-5 days) by really slowing the storm to a crawl. Right now, the storm can either dissipate in 48 hours, turn west or W-SW in the next 24-48 hours, get trapped within the ridge and meander at less than 5 kts, or rapidly develop into a strong hurricane and head north out to sea. Anyone got a wegee board?
good insight ron. it's ouija board.. but this isn't a spelling bee. -HF
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