wow, clark touched all the bases on irene. i don't suppose i could describe irene's current state so well. will just rubber stamp it and say 'what he said', 'cause it adds up. i'll try to do the math elsewhere. there has been some commentary on the itcz feature near 40w. there is strong convergence and a monsoon-trough type gyre there along 10N, with the curvature becoming more apparent with time. the convection there is modest, but over to the west near the caribbean the general extent and appearance of convection is already improved... perhaps due to mjo's arrival. the 40w itcz feature is getting mention in the nhc TWO as of 1030pm... right now it needs to start dislodging from the itcz if it is to develop. i'd expect this to happen as it moves west over the next couple of days... it will likely be an invest tomorrow or saturday. there's a large amplitude wave just off of africa with an associated low. since it doesn't have the slam-dunk development sort of organization, it will probably not do anything for a couple of days either. it should also move west, perhaps also becoming an invest late in the weekend or early next week. worthy of mention is the general lowering of pressures some of the globals have shown in the gulf in a few days. whether they're on to a pattern that favors development remains to be seen. i'm gonna go look at the 00z runs and see if anything new stands out. HF 0455z12august
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