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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
tropical storm lee to the north atlantic
      Thu Sep 01 2005 09:19 AM

the basin is likely to go quite active next week. here's the rundown:
nhc tracked the convection and not the center of lee last night.. the center has become more established in the broader low in the area. it won't strengthen until convection redevelops, or maybe the center will migrate towards the convection in spite of current steering to the nw. based on location and synoptic pattern, it has zero chance of affecting land.
91L has likely been a tropical storm since late yesterday. it's maintained a t-2.0 in spite of running underneath an upper trough, and has a vigorous surface circulation that is occasionally firing convection. now it's working into the exit region of the upper low, so the prospects of further development are good. wondering how many more advisory cycles the nhc will say 'thats not a tropical cyclone' when it looks better than irene did for days. some of the models are taking it more westward than earlier, but the long term trend should be north of the islands and nw to the bermuda vicinity. i'll get to what's happening up there in a minute.
92L has some serious long term prospects if it can get organized. numerous track models are strengthening it into a hurricane and moving it into the caribbean. there may be a good deal going on to the north that will add great uncertainty to the long-range... gfs has it slowly recurving in the western atlantic for days (and doing a loop by the end of the last forecast run.. in mid-september). the system is sheared from the east, but maintaining a t-1.0 rating... has for a day now. probably won't start any real development (and most all guidance suggests it will) until it nears/passes 40w.
western atlantic and gulf... still several model depictions of what happens here, and none of them are that comforting. this situation is something i learned to look for from mr. joe b, and the models have been getting steadily more aggressive with it.. the pattern pulse. katrina's wake trough is pulling out and leaving ridging aloft to settle off the east coast, while a large upper high digs in over the eastern u.s. and synoptically forces pressure falls from the eastern gulf out to near bermuda.
various model response to this... cmc develops a storm off the east coast that is moving towards the mid atlantic... most of the other globals spin up a duet of lows.. one near bermuda and one near the bahamas. gfs has the bahamas system moving across florida and the gulf into texas.. nogaps has a similar pair but a shorter run... euro has three weaker features, but one migrating into the gulf, another moving towards the SE, and another staying quasi-stationary near bermuda. of the model runs, the eastern-most in the low pressure series appears to be interacting with 91L... lee appears to be out of the picture. the system from 92L, if it comes to pass, will be moving in to the south of this large area of unsettled weather.. how it will interact is dependent on an already uncertain complex set of features to the north.
suffice to say, we may have a substantial burst of activity, and several models are depicting a significant system entering the caribbean, and activity potentially in the gulf or near the atlantic seaboard. could be getting busy over labor day weekend/into next week.
HF 1319z01september

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* Tropical Storm Lee Forms, No Threat to Land MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 01 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Lee Forms, No Threat to Land hurricane expert   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:22 AM
. * * 92L rmbjoe1954   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:27 AM
. * * TD 14? Bloodstar   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Regenerates, No Threat to Land BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Regenerates, No Threat to Land BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Regenerates, No Threat to Land Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:20 AM
. * * Storm Surge zmdz01   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Storm Surge bobbutts   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:31 PM
. * * 92L Ryan   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: 92L The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge HanKFranK   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge BobVee   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Tracking question oil trader   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:29 PM
. * * parade of weenies HanKFranK   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge tpratch   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge Katie   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge LI Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge Hootowl   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge LI Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Storm Surge VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Presidental Visit VolusiaMike   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit nl   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit native   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit Lisa NC   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit tpratch   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit firestar_1   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit firestar_1   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:14 PM
. * * storm tracks tashina   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: storm tracks The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Levees Anton Ross   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Levees emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Levees Anton Ross   Wed Aug 31 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Levees JoeF   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Levees The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Lee Jamiewx   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Levees BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Sat images MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Levees NewWatcher   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Levees JoeF   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Levees BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Levees emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Levees NewWatcher   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Levees JoeF   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Levees abyrd   Wed Aug 31 2005 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Levees native   Wed Aug 31 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Levees tpratch   Wed Aug 31 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Levees abyrd   Wed Aug 31 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Levees Takingforever   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Levees abyrd   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Levees Takingforever   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Levees Magic Hat   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Levees StormKrone   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Levees VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Levees BobVee   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Black Pearl   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Girlnascar   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Chesapeake Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Mongo   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Fuel Kevin   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Fuel LI Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Kevin   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Fuel Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Levees DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Levees StormHound   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Rick trinibaje   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Rick VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:46 PM
. * * if the levees hadn't been built? Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: if the levees hadn't been built? trinibaje   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:48 PM
. * * Re: if the levees hadn't been built? VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:50 PM
. * * New Orleans is a Tough town Anton Ross   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:57 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town Takingforever   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town Katie   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town Takingforever   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:24 AM
. * * gas Katie   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: gas bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: gas tenavilla   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: gas Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Re: gas Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: gas bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: gas Doombot!   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:05 AM
. * * Re: gas Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Video for Big Red Anton Ross   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Video for Big Red ShanaTX   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Video for Big Red damejune2   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Dr. Lyons jaybythebay   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons native   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Random Chaos   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons NewWatcher   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Beaumont, TX   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Big Red Machine   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Girlnascar   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Big Red Machine   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Looting Wingman51   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons jlauderdal   Thu Sep 01 2005 07:11 AM
. * * sat imagry of MS coastline Margie   Thu Sep 01 2005 07:36 AM
. * * Yanks donate $1M to relief efforts LI Phil   Thu Sep 01 2005 07:48 AM
. * * Re: Yanks donate $1M to relief efforts Margie   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:04 AM
. * * Gas Lee-Delray   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Hurricane Lee to Boston Takingforever   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lee to Boston LI Phil   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Lee to Boston Takingforever   Thu Sep 01 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Lee to Boston Margie   Thu Sep 01 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lee to Boston Random Chaos   Thu Sep 01 2005 08:47 AM
. * * tropical storm lee to the north atlantic HanKFranK   Thu Sep 01 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: tropical storm lee to the north atlantic NewWatcher   Thu Sep 01 2005 09:38 AM
. * * new addition HanKFranK   Thu Sep 01 2005 09:42 AM
. * * Re: new addition native   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: new addition The Force 2005   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: new addition DebbiePSL   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:00 PM
. * * Gulfport during Katrina (video) zmdz01   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:06 PM
. * * Re: new addition emackl   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: new addition The Force 2005   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: new addition Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: new addition emackl   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:31 AM
. * * Re: new addition ftlaudbob   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: new addition LI Phil   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Re: new addition NewWatcher   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: new addition The Force 2005   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:57 AM
. * * Re: new addition NewWatcher   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: new addition B.C.Francis   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: new addition Londovir   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Re: new addition AdvAutoBob   Thu Sep 01 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: new addition The Force 2005   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: new addition DebbiePSL   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: new addition Floridacane   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: new addition Cpt.Napalm   Thu Sep 01 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: new addition native   Thu Sep 01 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: new addition LHV   Fri Sep 02 2005 09:54 AM
. * * Re: new addition emackl   Thu Sep 01 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Dr. Lyons Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:45 PM
. * * Re: gas CoalCracker   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: gas SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: gas Lisa NC   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: gas LI Phil   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Waveland Margie   Thu Sep 01 2005 12:25 AM
. * * september time HanKFranK   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:15 AM
. * * Re: september time DebbiePSL   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: september time GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 01 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: september time Margie   Thu Sep 01 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: gas CivilEngineer   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Re: gas Jeffmidtown   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:44 PM
. * * Re: gas Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 11:03 PM
. * * New Orleans Mayor Rhino   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans Mayor Catawba   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: gas bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: gas bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: gas JulieTampa   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:00 PM
. * * Re: gas DebbiePSL   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: gas VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:10 PM
. * * MS Power VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: gas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2005 09:28 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:18 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Didn't they have mandatory evac? Margie   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Didn't they have mandatory evac? bamffl   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:46 PM
. * * PM FROM FRANK P. LI Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:44 PM
. * * Re: PM FROM FRANK P. Rad   Wed Aug 31 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: PM FROM FRANK P. LI Phil   Wed Aug 31 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: PM FROM FRANK P. Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Re: New Orleans is a Tough town VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Levees Takingforever   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Levees BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Colonial Pipeline Dougyd   Wed Aug 31 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Levees VandyBrad   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Levees JulieTampa   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Levees jbmusic   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:27 PM
. * * NO evacuations Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 31 2005 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Levees emackl   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:42 PM
. * * children of the disaster Katie   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:57 PM
. * * death toll HanKFranK   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: death toll BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:27 PM
. * * Re: storm tracks Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Jet Ski's Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's Big Red Machine   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Requested Help Wingman51   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Requested Help BTfromAZ   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Requested Help Wingman51   Wed Aug 31 2005 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Jesafe in FL? Juls   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's NewWatcher   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's naples   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Jet Ski's The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Presidental Visit The Force 2005   Wed Aug 31 2005 01:22 PM

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