Last night before I went to bed I predicted 979mb and 95mph for the 5am, but I was off by almost 8 hours! Now at 978 and 100mph.
OK right now a favorable environment for continued intensification, for maybe six more hours.
Can anyone talk about wind shear predictions over the next 6-12 hours? Am I seeing things or is the shear eroding the transverse banding to the west? Will the higher area of shear N of the Yucatan Pen. stay put? if so then after about six to eight more hours I don't see a favorable environment w.r.t. either shear or water temp.
So even if she gets up to a solid Cat 3 after leaving the Keys this aft, I don't see that as a problem for the US (for Cuba's northern shore, and for shipping interests). Back down to a Cat 2 by 24 hours from now.
Keys are going to get hammered in the meantime tho!
EDIT -- but obviously I haven't a clue...the 2pm NHC discussion keeps her a Cat 3 for three days!
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