Just got home and saw a drop of 18mb between 7am and 7pm today, and NHC 5pm intensity forecast up to 115kt (the threshold of Cat 4) starting tomorrow evng and for three days.
I can see in the last couple hours the core circulation has really organized.
This is a huge difference from this morning, but I still think there is a little bit of an intensity frenzy going on here on the board all day. Curious to hear from the board mets what is different since this morning to drive the intensity forecast changes, other than Rita's intensification all day (that is, is there anything else factoring in besides stepping up the intensity forecast because the starting point, Rita's current intensity, is higher).
I think I'll just pull up a chair and watch now.
So I see wind shear will not be a factor (thx for the link lurkerhunter!), and upper level atmosphere is aiding outflow, which looks very impressive in the GOM side of the storm, but still not clear on why water temps won't cap development at Cat 3.
Well I am certainly glad she is going to be down around 24deg lat while crossing between 85 and 89 deg log, instead of between 25 and 27.
I wonder why the NHC discussion always mentions the SHIPS model intensities when they are such an outlier (remember the 175kt forecast for Katrina...now 125kt for Rita), and don't reflect the NHC forecast. Is it just a bit of CYA?
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