Latest guidance on models and the mean upper streamlined analysis.
Looking at GFS and Nam model we see that the guidance there seems a blend to the mean 100/200/500mb flow that i have analyzed with Rita. Hurricane Rita will be controlled now by a deeper layered ridge of high pressure. The Track will go West to Northwest next 3 to 5 days and the Central Texas area is highest probability of a direct hit..I used also the 100mb winds since Rita will be a major intense hurricane and she will be controlled more above the mid level steering if the winds.. As you can see this is very tight to the official forecast. If you want to use this analysis as a screen tool to tighten the verification of the best models./..this is the only way to go..
A great tribute and we should give thanks to the forecasters of the National Weather Service Office at Key West..!! Even with a near major hurricane moving to the Southwest of them they still were able to get a radiosonde balloon launch!! Way to go Key West.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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