Quote: think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.
I think she's already a Cat 3, and that it will be confirmed in the next 20 minutes when the 11pm advisory package is issued. Cat 4 may take 12-36 hours after that. The storm is still south of where Katrina traversed - I think - and if the northwest jog doesn't continue the storm may stay over hot water for longer than some think. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything to keep Rita for continuing through the roof, ERCs not withstanding. My projection for landfall is near Houston/Galveston, or possibly northeast of there, unless the NW jog continues in which case I think even as far east as Grand Isle could be possible.
NOTE: This really wouldn't put it out of the "cone", either - just have it take the northern edge rather than the center.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 57108
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center