Lots of important information for Florida in the 5 a.m. discussion:
1-A modest strengthening may occur once the hurricane moves back over water into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight or Sunday.
2-The forecast intensity of Wilma while crossing Florida is a blend between the global models which keep an intense hurricane with 100 to 115 knots and the SHIPS model that rapidly weakens the cyclone.
3-Wilma to move on a northeast track with a significant increase in forward speed. Most of the dynamical models are in a better agreement tonight making the official track forecast more certain.
4-Wilma's wind field will probably expand as it crosses the Florida Peninsula.
5-A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of central and South Florida and the Florida Keys.
In summary, it looks more and more likely that a cat 1-2 hurricane will cross the Naples-West Palm Beach area very quickly on Monday with a large windfield. However, based on possible modest strengthening and the global models, a cat 3 is not out of the question.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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