Area Weather Discussion on Hurricane Wilma Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.
Broad trough with vortex low over Great Lakes will drag along Wilma. Mid to upper boundary across Vero Beach to Ft Myers...a cold front racing toward Central South Florida for Monday.
The latest on Wilma basing on the steering winds from continental Models of the ETA and NGM and analysis. Wilma now caught into a blocking wall type effect from the upper westerlies now beginning to pick it up. The motion to the Eastnortheast looks to begin later this afternoon and begin to accererate steadily Sunday and Monday. It looks like drawing a 060 degree line and also considering a mid to upper boudary or front aloft basing on the dewpoint analysis Wilma looks to go across a little farther south of the official forecast. The upper frontal boundary is located across Vero Beach to Ft Myers and usually these tropical systems especially this time of year move somewhat ahead of these boundaries. In any case shearing and the land mass effect has WIlma as a weakened system however once over water it will remain a rather punchy tropical system Cat 1 type storm for us is not to be taken lightly especially since you add the factor of the faster motion plus wind field these wind vectors and speeds are added to the overall effects of the wind damage and squally winds. In any case Monday around 1pm or so the tropical storms winds of 40 mph based on hurrivac program coming ino our area...and the strongest winds with possible squall gusts to 60-80 mph Monday starting 6pm for about 3-6 hrs then tapering off early Tuesday am. ..wind direction will be onshore...
Basically, Wilma will be more or less dragged along with broad trough to the north much like Freddy Flinstone dragging Wilma by her hair along the way on the ground not where you have the trough open up and it lifts northeast along the way but just dragged along.
Wilma will move off the extreme Southeast Florida coast Monday night and well offshore Tuesday am. cooler drier air moving into the area Tuesday night and continue into mid week with temps low mid 80's during daytime and lo 60's at nite Tuesday and Wednesday.
One last thing if Wilma accelerates a little faster and little earlier then you would adjust times of wind events a little sooner by 6 hrs or so..This would mean watches would be up by early this evening probably by the 5pm advisory...as a window of safety and margin..in case of earlier acceleration.
Right now I still favor southern most clustered tracks models..Naples to Broward-Palm Beach County Line...or more southward..
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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