Alot of disagreement among people on where this will go cause alot want to hear the storm will come close to them. People complain about it hitting down in SW florida when they live in Tampa saying, No it will shift N towards here....then the people down there say the same thing about I Dont want to hear about Tampa cause its staying here........Well people can predict what they want cause until it makes its turn and at what angle ( cause of the angle of the trough digging in) we dont know quite yet.
My forecast is a premature one........I feel with the trough digging to the N central gulf across to Central Florida...the steering flow will be SW-NE...at first a movement N will happen due to the ridge over the SE Bahamas getting fed heat from the TD-TS in the Carribean this ridge (although not very big) will enhance a nearterm N-NNE movement later tonight into Sunday with a bend NE later Sunday into Sunday night...the trough over N-Central Florida will lift to Ocala-Jax as the Hurricane moves NE Sunday night-Monday...
Landfall will be from the mouth of Tampa Bay south to Port Charollete....it could wobble just north over tampa or just south near Ft Myers...... still too early to tell....
The strongest winds will be near and just southeast of the center.....the heaviest rainfall will be near the center and also just N of the center cause of the interaction of the Hurricane and the trough to its N squeezing out the moisture in the Atmosphere........so even if you live 100 miles N of the path,, you will recieve heavy rain and TS winds due to the transition of the hurricane into more of a hybrid system as it leaves Florida.....so the winds will expand near landfall......
Anyways I will update my path late tonight cause things will change and it just matters on how it leaves the Yucitan and how much N or NNE it goes before the bend NE,,, 25N and 85W is the path N or S of where it comes into Florida.
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