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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
January Jitters
      Tue Jan 24 2006 09:06 AM

Welcome to the 2006 tropical season on CFHC, but hopefully not the start of the season. An area of convective activity in the northwestern Caribbean Sea east of Belize near 17.7N 87.1W at 24/12Z has developed as an area of early season interest. The area is at the tail end of an old frontal zone, with high pressure aloft, and convection has persisted in the area for a couple of days. The area has remained nearly stationary with perhaps a slight northward drift.

Sea surface temperatures are near 26C and wind shear in the area is light - about 7 or 8 mps with an expected increase to about 15mps by Thursday morning. Given the modest increase in wind shear and the marginally cool SSTs, the chances for any further development are rather slim - perhaps only about 25%. Movement of the convective area should be slowly northward and eventually northeastward toward western and central Cuba over the next few days as a cold front pushes into the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean Sea.

Is the development of a very early season storm really the meteorological last gasp of the previous season? Perhaps, however it can create some lively discussions among the pros. There is not much of a climatological database (1908, 1952 and 1978) to support or refute the arguement. It is worth noting that a year with an early season storm can mean that the second storm will not develop for quite some time into the season.

Anyway, its way too early, but we've got something to keep a casual eye on - and we will.
Cheers,
ED

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* January Jitters Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jan 24 2006 09:06 AM
. * * Re: January Jitters Bloodstar   Fri Feb 03 2006 05:54 AM
. * * Re: January Jitters B.C.Francis   Fri Feb 03 2006 09:13 PM
. * * speak of the devil HanKFranK   Fri Feb 03 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: speak of the devil Bloodstar   Sat Feb 04 2006 04:38 AM
. * * Re: speak of the devil Clark   Sat Feb 04 2006 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis Bloodstar   Mon Feb 06 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis Margie   Tue Feb 07 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Interesting additive to the Jitters Randrew   Wed Feb 08 2006 04:15 AM
. * * Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters Margie   Wed Feb 08 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters Steve   Wed Feb 08 2006 04:29 PM
. * * Re: I GUESS WERE IN A LA NINA PATTERN LONNY307   Thu Feb 09 2006 08:23 AM
. * * post analyses HanKFranK   Wed Feb 15 2006 12:34 PM
. * * Re: post analyses ShanaTX   Mon Feb 20 2006 05:11 AM
. * * Re: post analyses HanKFranK   Mon Feb 20 2006 10:25 PM
. * * South Atlantic, again Clark   Thu Feb 23 2006 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis NONAME   Tue Feb 07 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: speak of the devil HanKFranK   Sat Feb 04 2006 12:37 PM
. * * Re: January Jitters Randrew   Fri Feb 03 2006 07:57 PM
. * * Ed, Ed, Ed Margie   Tue Jan 24 2006 12:17 PM
. * * Margie, Margie danielwAdministrator   Tue Jan 24 2006 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Margie, Margie Margie   Wed Jan 25 2006 11:34 AM
. * * random HanKFranK   Wed Jan 25 2006 04:29 AM
. * * Re: random MapMaster   Tue Jan 31 2006 11:59 AM
. * * Re: random FJVargas   Thu Jan 26 2006 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Guatemala MapMaster   Tue Jan 24 2006 02:25 PM

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