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Re: speak of the devil
      Sat Feb 04 2006 01:10 PM

If I had the time, I'd be interested in looking at the model biases of the cyclone phase space with these hybrid storms (among others). Just from the old "eyeball" technique this season, it seems that the UKMET is often the most aggressive with shallow warm-core development. Both the GFS and NOGAPS tend to be about the same with their magnitude and evolution of warm-core development, oftentimes taking it to shallow warm-core and immediately decaying it and trending back toward the intersection of all structures.

Nevertheless, a similar scenario to that which we saw toward December is unfolding. A cool spell for the eastern US, often in conjunction with some nearby blocking, promotes ridging in the eastern part of the basin and the potential for upper-level troughs to become cut-off from the westerlies. It should have a few days to do whatever it is going to do before gradually moving toward the Madiera Islands and entering a more unfavorable environment. The progs I'm looking at, this time from the GFS as it is the most readily available, suggest the presence of frontal bands associated with this feature throughout most of its lifecycle. Subtropical development is more likely than tropical, for sure.

In summary...not a great shot, but worth watching. Maybe a 5% shot? I hesitate to go any higher just based off of what we saw last year, as these events are far beyond what we see in climatology. Notably, SSTs are below normal out there right now by about 0.5C, whereas before they were at or slightly above normal. Could it make the difference in terms of structure? Maybe. Without better upper level temperature obs beyond model data, I hesitate to say any better.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* January Jitters Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Feb 04 2006 01:10 PM
. * * Re: January Jitters Bloodstar   Fri Feb 03 2006 05:54 AM
. * * Re: January Jitters B.C.Francis   Fri Feb 03 2006 09:13 PM
. * * speak of the devil HanKFranK   Fri Feb 03 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: speak of the devil Bloodstar   Sat Feb 04 2006 04:38 AM
. * * Re: speak of the devil Clark   Sat Feb 04 2006 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis Bloodstar   Mon Feb 06 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis Margie   Tue Feb 07 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Interesting additive to the Jitters Randrew   Wed Feb 08 2006 04:15 AM
. * * Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters Margie   Wed Feb 08 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Interesting additive to the Jitters Steve   Wed Feb 08 2006 04:29 PM
. * * Re: I GUESS WERE IN A LA NINA PATTERN LONNY307   Thu Feb 09 2006 08:23 AM
. * * post analyses HanKFranK   Wed Feb 15 2006 12:34 PM
. * * Re: post analyses ShanaTX   Mon Feb 20 2006 05:11 AM
. * * Re: post analyses HanKFranK   Mon Feb 20 2006 10:25 PM
. * * South Atlantic, again Clark   Thu Feb 23 2006 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Latest Phase Analysis NONAME   Tue Feb 07 2006 09:30 PM
. * * Re: speak of the devil HanKFranK   Sat Feb 04 2006 12:37 PM
. * * Re: January Jitters Randrew   Fri Feb 03 2006 07:57 PM
. * * Ed, Ed, Ed Margie   Tue Jan 24 2006 12:17 PM
. * * Margie, Margie danielwAdministrator   Tue Jan 24 2006 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Margie, Margie Margie   Wed Jan 25 2006 11:34 AM
. * * random HanKFranK   Wed Jan 25 2006 04:29 AM
. * * Re: random MapMaster   Tue Jan 31 2006 11:59 AM
. * * Re: random FJVargas   Thu Jan 26 2006 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Guatemala MapMaster   Tue Jan 24 2006 02:25 PM

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