well, it has the look. but there's a lot of shear ripping at it, and from what i can tell from the gfs that isn't going to change much. i've heard (but am not sure) that the gfs works very well in the southern hemisphere. so anyway i'd guess right off the bat that this will be a miss. nrl monterrey has a track on it, though... so nothing is impossible. HF 0431z24february
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