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Last advisory issued for Isaias as it moves over Quebec. Other than 94L (which looks like it won't develop) Atlantic is quiet for a bit.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Isaias) , Major: 667 (Michael) Florida - Any: 667 (Michael) Major: 667 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
texas and east
      Mon Jun 19 2006 03:33 PM

anybody notice that system in southeast texas? it's sort of a leftover from a trough split, and at the same time acting like a mesoscale thunderstorm complex. right now there's a mid-level low with a weak surface reflection sitting almost on top of houston, that has drenched the area this morning with heavy persistent thunderstorm activity. if you look at a radar loop you'll see the type of structure that would very easily develop into a tropical cyclone if it were 50-100 mi south sitting over the extreme northern gulf. as is most forecast models push it west along i-10 and further inland over texas, so unlikely anything would develop. came pretty close, though.
that 'east of florida' option elizabeth is informing on has been appearing in numerous models in numerous forms... ranging from a cmc apparent tropical cyclone that rides north/nw off the east coast, to a gfs transient low, to nogaps insisting on a wave crossing florida, to ukmet showing a more classic low festering along an old baroclinic zone ahead of the attendant upper trough splitting and tailing away. the story keeps changing, but the collective answer is that some wave energy is going to get into a synoptically favorable area near the bahamas later this week... but whether the stars align and it can find a happy place where the shear is just so and convection stays focused is still up for grabs.
the overall synoptic pattern over the atlantic is very precocious.. wave action is looking more like what would be expected in late july than late june. it would also be very troubling if the current longwave pattern were present in a late summer form when the action starts, since what we have right now would more than likely guide a tropical system in. there is a general trough persisting over the lakes/northeast, with a little bulge in the heights off the mid-atlantic into the southeast... and the break in the subtropical ridge over the mississippi valley. strengthen the features a little and shift them for a mirror pattern in august, and you've got a conduit for the atlantic activity to hit florida and the east coast... with a shifty steering pattern that could create odd movements in the gulf.
to go a little further in assessing what we're looking at this season, some of the familiar signs from last year are back... generally reduced activity in the eastern and western pacific (though it's early, both are lagging relative to normal), and similar sst anomalies in parts of the atlantic and pacific. with a la nina supposedly coming on back in the spring, i didn't expect to see this much similarity... get worried if july starts picking up at an unusual pace.
HF 2033z19june

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Cooper Mon Jun 19 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. tornado00   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:21 AM
. * * Re:bahamas area Cat 5orBust   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Cat 5orBust   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Afternoon Discussions Roundup danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 17 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup harmlc.ath.cx   Sat Jun 17 2006 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Colleen A.   Sun Jun 18 2006 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Wxwatcher2   Sun Jun 18 2006 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 18 2006 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup harmlc.ath.cx   Sun Jun 18 2006 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup madmumbler   Sun Jun 18 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup ltpat228   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Shear danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Shear ElizabethH   Sun Jun 18 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Shear Nateball   Mon Jun 19 2006 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Shear Random Chaos   Mon Jun 19 2006 07:10 AM
. * * Evening TWD excerpt danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt John2   Sun Jun 18 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt Lee-Delray   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt ElizabethH   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt HCW   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:22 AM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report Lee-Delray   Mon Jun 19 2006 11:50 AM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report NewWatcher   Mon Jun 19 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report doug   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:02 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report ftlaudbob   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 19 2006 02:23 PM
. * * texas and east HanKFranK   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Beaumont, TX   Mon Jun 19 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: texas and east wereallgonnadie   Mon Jun 19 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:00 AM
. * * Re: texas and east saluki   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: texas and east dem05   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:33 AM
. * * Re: texas and east HanKFranK   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:32 AM
. * * Re: texas and east dem05   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:44 AM
. * * Re: texas and east stormchazer   Tue Jun 20 2006 06:45 AM
. * * Re: texas and east GuppieGrouper   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:46 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 19 2006 10:07 PM
. * * Re: texas and east doug   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:55 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Rich B   Mon Jun 19 2006 05:39 PM
. * * Re: texas and east sara33   Mon Jun 19 2006 06:05 PM
. * * Re: texas and east harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 07:24 PM
. * * Re: texas and east seb   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Cooper   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: texas and east ronningscared   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 19 2006 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt ElizabethH   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:22 PM
. * * Early AM Roundup danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. tornado00   Sat Jun 17 2006 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. HanKFranK   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 17 2006 08:22 AM

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