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Area WSW of Bermuda to be tracked as TD#5 at 11AM Today, moving away from the US Mainland, but Bermuda may want to watch.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Dorian) , Major: 633 (Michael) Florida - Any: 633 (Michael) Major: 633 (Michael)
32.5N 66.3W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Ne at 18 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: texas and east
      Tue Jun 20 2006 02:32 AM

nice to see people perking back up after the post-alberto malaise. i think maybe we're doing a bit of wave-mongering, but the 00z runs sure aren't doing much to discourage us.
in an atypical role reversal, the gfs is the least excited of all the models about the upcoming weekend. it pops a weak low and pushes it over florida without any interesting development, and leaves a general disturbed area off the southeast coast but does nothing with it. eta and ukmet are still showing a more defined trough or low east of the forecast upper trough off the east coast. euro has the upper trough but doesn't seem interested in any development (though it keeps a general trough in the gulf at the base of the persistent weakness forecast near and over the southeast.
more interesting runs pick up with nogaps and cmc. both are fairly reliable models and both do more with the apparent features. nogaps shows the gfs low crossing florida getting a bit more interesting in the gulf, with a suggested trough/low east of the bahamas by the weekend. cmc has a faster moving gulf system to near the texas coast, with the upper weakness further east, holding a fast-developing system south and west of bermuda further offshore next weekend. cmc has sporadically overdone development within the last week out there, as we're in a fairly persistent longwave pattern in the eastern u.s./western atlantic. seeing nogaps jump on the features as well, and also the other models 'seeing' vestiges of the same features, it makes the latter part of the coming week a time of growing interest, and the weekend potentially one of a return of activity. lets see if the models keep repeating the same general story, and if more of a consenus develops.
there may be a eastpac system out in the open pacific this week, as the itcz over there has a pronounced disturbance. it may be activating on a westerly pulse in the tropical pacific (from the last SOI dip)... watch/see if the enhanced convection propagates eastward over the next few days. could up the ante in the western part of our basin by the weekend if in fact real.
HF 0732z20june

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Cooper Tue Jun 20 2006 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. tornado00   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:21 AM
. * * Re:bahamas area Cat 5orBust   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Cat 5orBust   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Afternoon Discussions Roundup danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 17 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup harmlc.ath.cx   Sat Jun 17 2006 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Colleen A.   Sun Jun 18 2006 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Wxwatcher2   Sun Jun 18 2006 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 18 2006 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup harmlc.ath.cx   Sun Jun 18 2006 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup madmumbler   Sun Jun 18 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Afternoon Discussions Roundup ltpat228   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Shear danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Shear ElizabethH   Sun Jun 18 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Shear Nateball   Mon Jun 19 2006 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Shear Random Chaos   Mon Jun 19 2006 07:10 AM
. * * Evening TWD excerpt danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt John2   Sun Jun 18 2006 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt Lee-Delray   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt ElizabethH   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt HCW   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:22 AM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report Lee-Delray   Mon Jun 19 2006 11:50 AM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report NewWatcher   Mon Jun 19 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report doug   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:02 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report ftlaudbob   Mon Jun 19 2006 01:25 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 11:30AM report rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 19 2006 02:23 PM
. * * texas and east HanKFranK   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Beaumont, TX   Mon Jun 19 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: texas and east wereallgonnadie   Mon Jun 19 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:00 AM
. * * Re: texas and east saluki   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: texas and east dem05   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:33 AM
. * * Re: texas and east HanKFranK   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:32 AM
. * * Re: texas and east dem05   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:44 AM
. * * Re: texas and east stormchazer   Tue Jun 20 2006 06:45 AM
. * * Re: texas and east GuppieGrouper   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:46 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 19 2006 10:07 PM
. * * Re: texas and east doug   Mon Jun 19 2006 03:55 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Rich B   Mon Jun 19 2006 05:39 PM
. * * Re: texas and east sara33   Mon Jun 19 2006 06:05 PM
. * * Re: texas and east harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jun 19 2006 07:24 PM
. * * Re: texas and east seb   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Cooper   Mon Jun 19 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: texas and east ronningscared   Mon Jun 19 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: texas and east Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 19 2006 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Evening TWD excerpt ElizabethH   Sun Jun 18 2006 10:22 PM
. * * Early AM Roundup danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2006 06:34 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. tornado00   Sat Jun 17 2006 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. HanKFranK   Sat Jun 17 2006 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Alberto is gone and all is well...for now.. Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 17 2006 08:22 AM

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