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NHC is issuing advisories on recently re-developed #Beryl Elsewhere, the Atlantic is mostly quiet now.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 280 (Nate) , Major: 298 (Maria) Florida - Any: 308 (Irma) Major: 308 (Irma)
38.2N 63.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Ene at 6 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: bahamas area
      Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM

been watching the upper air evolution over the next few days. mind this stuff won't work out right if there's a significant storm altering the currents, but given the time of year and so forth it's probably a smarter assumption to think that the upper air evolution will likely keep any development weak and hard-pressed to do much. here's the take:
mid-level system continues to turn over a broad area northeast of the bahamas. there's a diffluent upper air flow overhead with an anticyclonic arc to it, helping the convection some. given the big upper low far east over the central atlantic, this area should naturally remain somewhat anticyclonic and keep the disturbed area active. any low pressure that develops would have to 'lock-in' and becoming attuned to the deep convection and outflow mechanism, or lower-level steering currents would just push it west into a high shear-zone around florida/the gulf. so, if a low comes east to florida, expect a weak enhancement to showers and nothing else.
i usually buy into what the energy from a system is shown doing by models, and the result of most of these is to take a weak low/precip area west then north into the carolinas... maybe a weak system running fl/ga/sc. if something gets going it would more than likely turn up around the mid-level ridge, which should stay anchored east of hatteras for the rest of the week. that's something to consider, at least.
there's also an upper high propagating west, with an attendant wave in the caribbean. the high should enhance it some... but globals show a pretty strong jet on its back flank, shown outrunning the waves and shearing them in the western caribbean.
gfs keeps trying to focus the system near the bahamas further east, and take its energy out past bermuda in a sort of 'jeanne-east' scenario. it has made a couple of significant systems like earlier cmc runs, but has them developing in high-shear zones in a quasi-baroclinic fashion. don't buy it.
bottom line: if the feature off the southeast keeps persisting, it will eventually spawn a surface low. if the surface low doesn't jolt westward into shear, it may wiggle itself into being a weak tropical cyclone, fighting some shear, and carry a ton of moisture up towards the mid-atlantic after menacing the southeast late this week.
random thought... we're just about at the summer solistice. enjoy that late evening twilight.
HF 0002z21june

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring MikeCAdministrator Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Tony Cristaldi   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:21 AM
. * * Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! NewWatcher   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! scottsvb   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:00 AM
. * * No longer a trough? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:04 AM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:14 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Tony Cristaldi   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? firestar_1   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:39 PM
. * * TD or Sub-TD? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: TD or Sub-TD? Lsr1166   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:58 AM
. * * Re: TD or Sub-TD? Sheeper   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:25 PM
. * * 91L Invest Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: 91L Invest Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 91L Invest NewWatcher   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:33 AM
. * * I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:12 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Bloodstar   Fri Jun 23 2006 05:28 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 06:42 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! ElizabethH   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:34 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Multi-Decadal Signal   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:37 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! madmumbler   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Lee-Delray   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:33 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:21 AM
. * * Bahamian Showers Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:12 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lee-Delray   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring NewWatcher   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring scottsvb   Wed Jun 21 2006 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring tomahawk   Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Fla. native in Ala.   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Fleckivan   Wed Jun 21 2006 03:04 PM
. * * A newbie question clueless   Wed Jun 21 2006 03:44 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question BullitNutz   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Local News Interested Wingman51   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Local News Interested Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 06:37 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question nl   Wed Jun 21 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:09 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question clueless   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 21 2006 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lou123   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Tony Cristaldi   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? dem05   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:14 AM
. * * Possible invest.... twizted sizter   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Possible invest.... ftlaudbob   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Off SA MapMaster   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Lsr1166   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 AM
. * * slight change of tone HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:55 AM
. * * Re: slight change of tone madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:46 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone Bill-n-StPeteFL   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:30 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:50 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone NewWatcher   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Bahama Disturbance ElizabethH   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance john2   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance Rich B   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:15 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone doug   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? leetdan   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Rich B   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:44 PM
. * * POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA SebastianLou   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:09 PM
. * * Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:16 PM
. * * Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA craigm   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? SebastianLou   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lee-Delray   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:54 PM
. * * little things that matter HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter Clark   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:13 PM
. * * Bahamas stuff Randrew   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff john2   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff HanKFranK   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:53 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Beryl in the making and more... reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:28 AM
. * * you said this the other day HF LoisCane   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:20 PM
. * * Re: you said this the other day HF Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:55 PM
. * * Roundup danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:33 PM
. * * Re: TAFB and the ECMWF Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: TAFB and the ECMWF Clark   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:15 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter reedzone   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:23 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter MapMaster   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Beaumont, TX   Thu Jun 22 2006 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? StormHound   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
. * * 27N 73W Bloodstar   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Heights danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 27N 73W madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lee-Delray   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring NewWatcher   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring vonkamp   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:52 PM
. * * 00Z Wednesday Model rounds danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Thomas Giella   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Cat 5orBust   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:31 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area HanKFranK   Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Tony Cristaldi   Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Clark   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lee-Delray   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:25 PM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" MapMaster   Tue Jun 20 2006 10:08 AM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" Beaumont, TX   Tue Jun 20 2006 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Today's GFS Runs..so far danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 20 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far John2   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far ElizabethH   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far Ron Basso   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far saluki   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far madmumbler   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far MapMaster   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Tue Jun 20 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring John2   Tue Jun 20 2006 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:02 AM

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