been watching the upper air evolution over the next few days. mind this stuff won't work out right if there's a significant storm altering the currents, but given the time of year and so forth it's probably a smarter assumption to think that the upper air evolution will likely keep any development weak and hard-pressed to do much. here's the take: mid-level system continues to turn over a broad area northeast of the bahamas. there's a diffluent upper air flow overhead with an anticyclonic arc to it, helping the convection some. given the big upper low far east over the central atlantic, this area should naturally remain somewhat anticyclonic and keep the disturbed area active. any low pressure that develops would have to 'lock-in' and becoming attuned to the deep convection and outflow mechanism, or lower-level steering currents would just push it west into a high shear-zone around florida/the gulf. so, if a low comes east to florida, expect a weak enhancement to showers and nothing else. i usually buy into what the energy from a system is shown doing by models, and the result of most of these is to take a weak low/precip area west then north into the carolinas... maybe a weak system running fl/ga/sc. if something gets going it would more than likely turn up around the mid-level ridge, which should stay anchored east of hatteras for the rest of the week. that's something to consider, at least. there's also an upper high propagating west, with an attendant wave in the caribbean. the high should enhance it some... but globals show a pretty strong jet on its back flank, shown outrunning the waves and shearing them in the western caribbean. gfs keeps trying to focus the system near the bahamas further east, and take its energy out past bermuda in a sort of 'jeanne-east' scenario. it has made a couple of significant systems like earlier cmc runs, but has them developing in high-shear zones in a quasi-baroclinic fashion. don't buy it. bottom line: if the feature off the southeast keeps persisting, it will eventually spawn a surface low. if the surface low doesn't jolt westward into shear, it may wiggle itself into being a weak tropical cyclone, fighting some shear, and carry a ton of moisture up towards the mid-atlantic after menacing the southeast late this week. random thought... we're just about at the summer solistice. enjoy that late evening twilight. HF 0002z21june
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