AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
HOWEVER...FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NAM MODEL MOVES A 500 MB LOW WEST DIRECTLY TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS IT TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS INCREASES OUR MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED JUST OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DISORGANIZED BROAD LOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS WHICH IS PREFERRED ALSO MOVES A 500 MB LOW WEST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT SLOWER...ARRIVING SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE APPEARANCE BUT DEVELOPS MULTIPLE WEAK CENTERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT ALSO HAS A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW CENTER OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MERGES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY POPS AND A BACKING SURFACE WIND FLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BACK TO CLIMO THEREAFTER. WILL NEED TO STAY UP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT SLOWS DOWN AND REMAINS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC LONGER THAN NOW EXPECTED.
also good to see the how some NWS mets think on things... when there not even a few hundred miles from each other up the coast...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 245 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
.LONG TERM... WELL THE QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS WHAT WILL THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS DO? OVERALL THINK THE SYSTEM WILL TRY SOME FOR TYPE OF SUB-TROPICAL/HYBRID ORGANIZATION AND WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT THINK THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IT. JUST REMEMBERING BACK TO ALBERTO NAM HAD A NICE LOOKING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM...HEADED FOR THE TEXAS COAST! THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT SOMETHING SIMILAR HERE SO OVERALL PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUN INTO MONDAY. GFS POPS LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL WE SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES OFFSHORE. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TO BE SOMETHING THAT WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
hmm.... just sit and wait game....
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