Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Interesting notes form Miami this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

HOWEVER...FORECAST DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NAM MODEL MOVES A 500 MB LOW
WEST DIRECTLY TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY EVENING
IT IS OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS IT TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS INCREASES OUR MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND THE
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED JUST OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DISORGANIZED BROAD LOW ACROSS THE
PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THE GFS WHICH IS PREFERRED ALSO MOVES A 500
MB LOW WEST TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT SLOWER...ARRIVING SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE THE GFS HAS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE APPEARANCE BUT
DEVELOPS MULTIPLE WEAK CENTERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT ALSO HAS A BROAD DISORGANIZED LOW CENTER OVER THE
PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MERGES WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE STAY
WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY POPS AND A BACKING SURFACE WIND FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ABOVE CLIMO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BACK TO CLIMO THEREAFTER. WILL
NEED TO STAY UP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT SLOWS DOWN AND REMAINS
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC LONGER THAN NOW EXPECTED.

also good to see the how some NWS mets think on things... when there not even a few hundred miles from each other up the coast...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.LONG TERM...
WELL THE QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS WHAT WILL THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE WAVE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS DO? OVERALL THINK THE
SYSTEM WILL TRY SOME FOR TYPE OF SUB-TROPICAL/HYBRID ORGANIZATION AND
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BUT THINK THE NAM IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH IT. JUST REMEMBERING BACK TO ALBERTO NAM HAD A
NICE LOOKING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM...HEADED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST! THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT SOMETHING SIMILAR HERE SO OVERALL
PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUN INTO MONDAY.
GFS POPS LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL WE SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES OFFSHORE.
RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TO BE SOMETHING THAT WILL ADD
SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.

hmm.... just sit and wait game....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jun 22 2006 02:55 PM)

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