there are three primary areas where low level vorticity is apparent and where a system might try to focus stronger inflow/rising motions/increased convection.. the whole works of an embryonic tropical cyclone. number one is to the north of the others, sort of the reflection of yesterday's convective blow up that has blown out to the west... roughly 400 mi east of jacksonville.. that is unlikely to develop, but is sort of dragging the upper end of the surface trough in the area along and taking its inflow channel more into the feature to its south. sheared, nonconvective; it won't develop, but appears to be feeding the one to its south. number two is what rich b was mentioning a minute ago. it's about 200 mi east of abaco, a bit sheared, but along a definite wind shift line and the focus of some convective activity. convection is orienting around it in rows like vestigial feeder bands right now. it appears to be just along/north of a vortmax up around h30 and above... which may help it organize just a little, dependent on how it evolves. this is what i'd favor for our potential system. much of the convective activity is southeast of the center, almost all in one roughly linear band. it may sort of 'hold in place' while a mini-fujiwhara type interaction occurs with the number one vortex to the north... this is probably aiding its convective organization at the moment. number three is the wildcard coming out of the east.. out around 22/64. it's the upper end of an easterly wave with a noticeable low level turning, probably h85-h70, in the visibles. convection is increasing today and it's moving into the sharply diffluent area ahead of the number two vortmax. if the number two system fails to organize it may become dominant due to an overall more favorable synoptic situation.. and even if the number two does develop it can serve as a hindrance, robbing inflow and potential energy out of the warm, moisture laden flow out of the tropics. a couple of the globals view both of these features as potential development candidates. number two is what is being mentioned in the TWOs, and what has more momentum at this point.. but i would not ignore number three. as the disturbed weather persists i'm sliding more into the development camp. development is not imminent, but it's still slowly progressing in that direction. think we may be seeing a development later tomorrow. HF 2045z22june
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