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Tropical Storm Watches up for Barbados for Tropical Storm #Dorian. 98L moving away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Barry) , Major: 318 (Michael) Florida - Any: 318 (Michael) Major: 318 (Michael)
11.2N 52.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
W at 14 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
little things that matter
      Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM

there are three primary areas where low level vorticity is apparent and where a system might try to focus stronger inflow/rising motions/increased convection.. the whole works of an embryonic tropical cyclone.
number one is to the north of the others, sort of the reflection of yesterday's convective blow up that has blown out to the west... roughly 400 mi east of jacksonville.. that is unlikely to develop, but is sort of dragging the upper end of the surface trough in the area along and taking its inflow channel more into the feature to its south. sheared, nonconvective; it won't develop, but appears to be feeding the one to its south.
number two is what rich b was mentioning a minute ago. it's about 200 mi east of abaco, a bit sheared, but along a definite wind shift line and the focus of some convective activity. convection is orienting around it in rows like vestigial feeder bands right now. it appears to be just along/north of a vortmax up around h30 and above... which may help it organize just a little, dependent on how it evolves. this is what i'd favor for our potential system. much of the convective activity is southeast of the center, almost all in one roughly linear band. it may sort of 'hold in place' while a mini-fujiwhara type interaction occurs with the number one vortex to the north... this is probably aiding its convective organization at the moment.
number three is the wildcard coming out of the east.. out around 22/64. it's the upper end of an easterly wave with a noticeable low level turning, probably h85-h70, in the visibles. convection is increasing today and it's moving into the sharply diffluent area ahead of the number two vortmax. if the number two system fails to organize it may become dominant due to an overall more favorable synoptic situation.. and even if the number two does develop it can serve as a hindrance, robbing inflow and potential energy out of the warm, moisture laden flow out of the tropics.
a couple of the globals view both of these features as potential development candidates. number two is what is being mentioned in the TWOs, and what has more momentum at this point.. but i would not ignore number three.
as the disturbed weather persists i'm sliding more into the development camp. development is not imminent, but it's still slowly progressing in that direction. think we may be seeing a development later tomorrow.
HF 2045z22june

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jun 22 2006 03:46 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Tony Cristaldi   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:21 AM
. * * Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! NewWatcher   Fri Jun 23 2006 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize! scottsvb   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:00 AM
. * * No longer a trough? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:04 AM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Margie   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:14 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? Tony Cristaldi   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM
. * * Re: No longer a trough? firestar_1   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:39 PM
. * * TD or Sub-TD? Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: TD or Sub-TD? Lsr1166   Fri Jun 23 2006 11:58 AM
. * * Re: TD or Sub-TD? Sheeper   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:25 PM
. * * 91L Invest Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: 91L Invest Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 91L Invest NewWatcher   Fri Jun 23 2006 09:33 AM
. * * I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:12 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 02:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Bloodstar   Fri Jun 23 2006 05:28 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 06:42 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Rich B   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! ElizabethH   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:34 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:14 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Multi-Decadal Signal   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:37 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! madmumbler   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Lee-Delray   Fri Jun 23 2006 08:33 AM
. * * Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance! Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:21 AM
. * * Bahamian Showers Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 07:12 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lee-Delray   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring NewWatcher   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring scottsvb   Wed Jun 21 2006 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring tomahawk   Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Fla. native in Ala.   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Fleckivan   Wed Jun 21 2006 03:04 PM
. * * A newbie question clueless   Wed Jun 21 2006 03:44 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question BullitNutz   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Local News Interested Wingman51   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Local News Interested Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 06:37 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question nl   Wed Jun 21 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:09 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question clueless   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re: A newbie question MapMaster   Wed Jun 21 2006 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 21 2006 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lou123   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Tony Cristaldi   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? dem05   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:14 AM
. * * Possible invest.... twizted sizter   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Possible invest.... ftlaudbob   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Off SA MapMaster   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Lsr1166   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 AM
. * * slight change of tone HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:55 AM
. * * Re: slight change of tone madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:46 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone Bill-n-StPeteFL   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:30 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:50 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone NewWatcher   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Bahama Disturbance ElizabethH   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance john2   Thu Jun 22 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance Rich B   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Bahama Disturbance Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:15 PM
. * * Re: slight change of tone doug   Thu Jun 22 2006 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? leetdan   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Rich B   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:44 PM
. * * POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA SebastianLou   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:09 PM
. * * Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:16 PM
. * * Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA craigm   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? SebastianLou   Thu Jun 22 2006 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lee-Delray   Thu Jun 22 2006 02:54 PM
. * * little things that matter HanKFranK   Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter Clark   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:13 PM
. * * Bahamas stuff Randrew   Thu Jun 22 2006 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff john2   Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff HanKFranK   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Bahamas stuff Randrew   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:53 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Beryl in the making and more... reedzone   Fri Jun 23 2006 12:28 AM
. * * you said this the other day HF LoisCane   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:20 PM
. * * Re: you said this the other day HF Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 08:55 PM
. * * Roundup danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:33 PM
. * * Re: TAFB and the ECMWF Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: TAFB and the ECMWF Clark   Thu Jun 22 2006 09:15 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter Tony Cristaldi   Thu Jun 22 2006 04:37 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter reedzone   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:23 PM
. * * Re: little things that matter MapMaster   Thu Jun 22 2006 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Beaumont, TX   Thu Jun 22 2006 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? madmumbler   Thu Jun 22 2006 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Margie   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lou123   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? StormHound   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
. * * 27N 73W Bloodstar   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Heights danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: 27N 73W madmumbler   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? Lee-Delray   Wed Jun 21 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Twins...again?? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring NewWatcher   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring vonkamp   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:52 PM
. * * 00Z Wednesday Model rounds danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 21 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 21 2006 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Thomas Giella   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:09 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Cat 5orBust   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:31 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area HanKFranK   Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Tony Cristaldi   Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM
. * * Re: bahamas area Clark   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Lee-Delray   Tue Jun 20 2006 05:25 PM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" MapMaster   Tue Jun 20 2006 10:08 AM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" Beaumont, TX   Tue Jun 20 2006 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It's getting "the Look" danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Today's GFS Runs..so far danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 20 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far John2   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far ElizabethH   Tue Jun 20 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far Ron Basso   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far saluki   Tue Jun 20 2006 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far madmumbler   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far MapMaster   Tue Jun 20 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring Ron Basso   Tue Jun 20 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring John2   Tue Jun 20 2006 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring ElizabethH   Tue Jun 20 2006 09:02 AM

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