Having had the chance to pore over more of the global model guidance, it's becoming apparent to me that the H25 trough, currently centered just NE of the northern Bahamas, is likely going to remain entwined with whatever does or doesn't spin up at the surface. The upper feature is forecast to remain more or less intact over the next 2-3 days, remaining quasi-stationary through about 12Z SAT before retograding westward into Florida, just ahead of the surface trough or low. If this pans out, then it will stay close enough to keep some upper level shear over the system.
On the one hand this is less than ideal for true TC formation, while on the other, the shear looks like it may be somewhat divergent, which tends to aid/ventilate convection. Hence, if any type of closed low was to form, upper conditions might be more conducive for a more hybrid, baroclinically enhanced (BE), type low to form.
At this point, it's hard to argue with the strong signal from most of the guidance that at the very least, an inverted trough will be bringing some much needed rainfall to Florida for the latter half of the weekend.
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