Not a whole lot of time, but wanted to check in with some comments. Mostly, it's an amalgam of what HF has mentioned over the past day or so. Entirely concur with the "little things" detailed in the post I'm replying to. I am not very bullish on this system developing, however. I see a persistent upper-low that shows no signs of weakening or moving out of the picture. With most of last year's developments, we saw the upper lows weaken and move out of the way. It's helping to create a favorable divergent environment to the NE of the upper low, as Tony mentioned, but most of the lower level energy is focused further west. Stuck between two ridges with an overall blocky pattern, the upper low is going to have a tough time shearing out of getting out of the way.
Models are in good agreement on the entire complex slowly moving toward Florida and then hooking a hard right up the coast. The most likely scenario, in my view, is the one outlined by HF a day or so ago -- that of a weak low developing as the system scoots up the coast toward the mid-Atlantic, much like an unclassified feature late last June. If this were August, it might have a better shot of getting going. Alas, however, it's June, and the pattern isn't all that condusive to development. Not out of the realm of possibility, but still think it's more of a rainmaker more than anything else.
Despite Alberto, many areas haven't seen a whole lot of rain since then -- here in Tallahassee, the airport saw it's first recorded rainfall since the storm made landfall, but most parts of town missed out -- so much of the region could use more rain. We're still ~10" in the hole for the year, at least here in the Panhandle. I'm sure the peninsula isn't that much better off.
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Rating:
Thread views: 22273
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: little things that matter
Edit
Reply
Quote
