Not sure what you're seeing at this point, the system is rotating around an upper level low oh... 26N 73W or so, There are little low level ... vorticies one at 27N 76W and another at 30N 77W, neither of which have any convection. Now if there's a LLC hidden near the convection, it might... *might* spin up a bit, however the organization is still horrible.
I'd said last night that it had a one in three shot of developing (maybe even as high as 40 percent) in 48 hours. but as HF mentioned above, the LLC centers aren't holding convection. Right now i'd put development chances at zero. There are just too many things pulling against it in the near term. after 36 hours, i'd give it a shot if it can maintain convection. But we'll see.
At this point I'm not holding my breath. (which will promptly mean it'll fire up and become a TD in the next 12 hours with the way my predictions go
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 32118
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center