Not sure what you're seeing at this point, the system is rotating around an upper level low oh... 26N 73W or so, There are little low level ... vorticies one at 27N 76W and another at 30N 77W, neither of which have any convection. Now if there's a LLC hidden near the convection, it might... *might* spin up a bit, however the organization is still horrible.
I'd said last night that it had a one in three shot of developing (maybe even as high as 40 percent) in 48 hours. but as HF mentioned above, the LLC centers aren't holding convection. Right now i'd put development chances at zero. There are just too many things pulling against it in the near term. after 36 hours, i'd give it a shot if it can maintain convection. But we'll see.
At this point I'm not holding my breath. (which will promptly mean it'll fire up and become a TD in the next 12 hours with the way my predictions go
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.
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