4 AM EDT 9 Sep Update
US Air Force Reserve Weather Reconnaisance has now departed from their first mission into Tropical Storm Florence. They relocated the center to the south of where satellite estimates had it placed. Maximum flight level wind speed on this mission was 61 kts, or 70.2 mph.
Still shy of Cat 1 Hurricane status. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 345 nautical miles. Mainly in the NE Quadrant.
Wave just East-Southeast of Florence was designated 93L, by the Navy last night.
~danielw
0745Z AVN IR Enhancment

7AM 6 Sep Update
Florence is still maintaining itself as a large, but relatively weak Tropical Storm moving west northwest through the Atlantic.
Most likely the storm will recurve away from land, and I'll avoid trying to "wishcast" it westward any. We'll continue to watch it for surprises, though. Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic has a small chance to develop over the next few days as well.
- Mike C.
Original Update
We're very near the statistical peak of the hurricane season, and the Atlantic basin is acting in kind. Tropical storm Florence was designated this morning after two days of depression status. The storm is likely to slowly intensify while it consolidates and then rapidly intensify later this week as atmospheric conditions become more optimized. Most model guidance is recurving the system off the east coast to the west of Bermuda, and this solution looks to be the most likely path--however it has trended west some over the last couple of days, so the threat to the mid-Atlantic up to the Canadian Maritimes isn't completely nil. The strength of ridging in the northwestern Atlantic and the degree to which a first shortwave bypasses and a subsequent trough dig into the Eastern U.S. also have bearing on what Florence does. It is likely to be a significant hurricane by this weekend.
Behind Florence is another wave with a surface low. It is designated Invest 91L right now, the 22nd Invest of the year. Several global models show this feature developing and several show little change. It has limited convection right now, and only a broad circulation. The proximity to Florence may result in it being sheared in a couple of days, but right now the proximity doesn't seem to have any adverse affect on the disturbance. It will likely move west to west-northwest behind Florence through the week, under strong ridging in the central Atlantic.
Disturbed weather near Florida remains disorganized. Waves entering and passing through the eastern Caribbean lack organization as well. Some globals show the next wave coming off Africa developing some as well, but a strong trough off Northwest Africa may take it up, according to several models, if it were to develop early.
Chance for east central Atlantic wave (91L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours, about 5.5.
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]
Tropical Storm Florence
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Florence
93L (Eastern Atlantic wave):
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 05:20 AM)