The disturbance I thought would become 'TD-5E' has been designated 'TD-6E', instead. Apologies for any confusion. Please see the replies to this post for a follow-on as to what's happening with these 2 depressions. - Norm
I'm sure we've all read a TWO that says "development of this system ... if any ... will be slow to occur".
Such was the expected case, just 6 hours ago, with a tropical wave in the EastPac, out near 125W.
But, in just that short time, there have been several, large bursts of deep convection (as cold as -90!) near the LLC of a weak low embedded in the wave.
And, because of this, the wave has gone from rather 'disorganized' to VERY organized, in that brief period, or so it certainly appears from the IR loop.
Additionally, there is a very conspicuous banding feature in the SE quadrant, with numerous thunderstorms with temps as cold as -80, assuming a distinctive 'wrapping' feature which is continuing to grow (as I write this, 2am Hawaii time, 8am Florida time) which is close enough to the LCC to aid in dropping surface pressures even further.
SST's are plenty warm, and the general thermodynamic environment (quick check of the water vapor loop) seems to be rather favorable, as well, at least in the short term.
I've been watching systems 'spin up' for many years, and this is among the *fastest* I've ever seen, in going from just another 'ho-hum' wave embedded in the ITCZ, into something that sure looks like it's well on it's way to becoming a TD, if it isn't already a depression.
It certainly looks very "depression-ish", and IMHO, NHC will probably begin issuing advisories sometime later today. They're likely waiting on the visible loops and an upcoming QuikScat pass to make an assessment on this system.
Another disturbed area to the NE of this one, although smaller and over somewhat cooler water, also has the potential to become a depression later today, or at least according NHC's TWO issued at 11Z, before encountering SST's too cool for significant development later on Sunday.
But this 'wave' near 125W sure looks 'promising' for the next tropical storm. Time will tell.
It sure spun up quickly in just 6 hours. Just goes to show, not the disparage the good folks at the NHC, that we sometimes don't have that great a handle on the all the factors leading to rapid cyclogenesis.
Have a look at this time loop, which goes from 'blah' to 'interesting', and you'll see what I mean : (See note below)
(PLEASE NOTE: Time 'Expired' 12-hour IR loop from UH's weather server. This link only shows the *most recent* 12 hours of loop, and no longer shows you the 'rapid cyclogenesis' I was describing above, but will show you, instead, this area of the EastPac basin through the day on Sunday, or whatever day you happen to be reading this post. Will research into how to 'preserve' the time segment 'of interest' for future postings.)
(I like to click the 'Rock' button, for a forward / backward loop, which helps to more clearly visualize convective trends.)
Warm Aloha from Hawaii - Norm
Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Jul 16 2007 08:17 AM)