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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes
Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now
      Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM

Cosme's trying to hang in there tonight, but only just so, making me hesitant to want to either write it off or proclaim it a minor threat. Convection went on the wane again this afternoon but is now trying to refire in the southeastern quadrant of the storm, probably closest to the warmest and most unstable air at the surface. Conditions do improve as it gets further west -- SSTs warm, low level stability goes down -- but as the NHC has hinted at, southwesterly shear starts to play a role as it nears and passes Hawaii.

Of course, that's also one of the most data sparse regions in the N. Hemisphere and I'm not sure how much to trust forecasts of subtropical upper lows at 4-5 day lead times, so I think we have to take it with a grain of salt for now. Of course, I could also be suffering from a tad bit of Ioke memories, as I remember the forecasts that had it succumbing to shear and/or recurving at about 160-170W, so bear with me if so!

I don't see why, given what it has done the past two days, it can't at least maintain itself for another couple of days in this fashion. I'd say it has a brief window for modest restrengthening as it passes south of Hawaii -- assuming it holds together -- and then, as of now, will likely end up in a hostile environment that may ultimately bring about its demise. Still, if my memory serves me right, this would be the rare storm to make it near Hawaii on this trajectory as something more than a low cloud swirl; the storms that generally make it to this longitude are further south.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cosme to Become First HURRICANE of 2007 CoconutCandy Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now CoconutCandy   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now ClarkModerator   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Gives Big Island a Big Drink CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 23 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Cosme Waning, for Now CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now RevUp   Wed Jul 18 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Cosme Attempting Regeneration CoconutCandy   Fri Jul 20 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Cosme Weakens, Sputtering CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering ClarkModerator   Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Becomes a HURRICANE, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 09:45 PM
. * * TS Cosme likely to become FIRST Hurricane of 2007 CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Soon to be Tropical Storm Cosme CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Depression 5E's Demise CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 10:23 AM

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