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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge
      Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM

I too, see 97L "moistening up" this morning. Given the added heat content off the SST's, I would guess we will basically see a steady state of increasing coverage area. I cannot stress enough how large this system's overall envelope appears to be. It really is fortunate that a rapid spin up is not anticipated, and that development ( should it in fact occur ), likely not result in the system being designated a depression much sooner than Sunday morning. That much is good news. The bad news is that as this system evolves, its overall size could pose serious flood risk to Puerto Rico and Hispanola, especially if it tracks directly over or just south of these islands.

Having just taken a look at all the models this morning, there seems to be little question as to the basic course and motion over at least the short to mid range of time. Nearly all of the dynamic models and the global models, pretty much advertise a tight cluster of tracks that certainly indicate that the sytsem will pass close to ( if not over ) Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Whether that means just to the south or just to the north still remains within any margin of error. How much mountainous land is traversed prior to any possible threat to the Bahamas, Yucatan, or the U.S. obviously plays into later intensity.

Here is my take on the present set of circumstances - As I look at the broader picture ( literally ), there is little doubt that 97L is on the western edge of what appears to be an overall very large surge of the easterlies. On visable satellite, it would appear to me that in association with 97L, a huge lazily rotating area of Altocumulus would appear as the leading edge of this surge. I think the large pocket of dry air ( SAL ) which lies just north of the latest invest 98L, bears out, this continued easterly surge as well. I think it wil become appearant that the cuttoff low north of Puerto Rico, will be shunted ( or basically pushed ) out of the way by this larger/strong region of mid to upper level ridging which is pushing westward along with 97L. Thus, I do not see the ULL playing much or any role in the developing systems motion or formation ( granted, should the ULL cut off southward, it would tend to aid in the forming systems outflow ). More than likely I would guess the ULL to simply get pinched northward and picked up by the westerlies. To me, biggest threat to Southern/East Coast of Florida, Bahamas, and potentially the Carolina's would be for this system to strengthen into a Tropical Storm prior to reaching Puerto Rico. Such a more vertically stacked system would tend to gain a little latitude a little quicker and potentially pose the biggest risk for 97L to not only impact these areas, but have greater postenial for reaching stronger downstream intensity ( given the avoidance of being impacted by mountainous terrain ). Meanwhile, greatest threat to Hispanola, Cuba, West Coast of Florida and much of the N. Gulf Coast, would be if this system were to not strengthen ( as forecast ) until reaching the Eastern Caribbean, and then to have a more Westward track. In the near term ( 72 hrs ), it is my opinion that the level of consolodation and potential for deepening that will ultimately determine whether we see a possible Major Hurricane threatening the Florida East, Georgia, or Carolina coastline or a re-intensifying hurricane which could ultimately threaten anywhere from the N. Gulf Coast eastward to the W. Coast of Florida.

Given how larger sytstems tend to strengthen more slowly, and given the current overall dynamics my best guess for the moment would be a significant rainfall event for the greater Antilles and eventually a Cat.2/3 Hurricane landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle region to perhaps the Louisiana coastline.

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* Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene Conditions/Observations in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge RevUp   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge BryanG   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Tue Aug 23 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Floridacane   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge peteferr   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge doug   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Wingwiper   Thu Aug 25 2011 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* GlenJohnson   Thu Aug 25 2011 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Edski   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TXEB   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TallyBob   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge k___g   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge Marknole   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Irene Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge stormtiger   Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge watchinout   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cooper13   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Thu Aug 25 2011 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Abaco Bev   Thu Aug 25 2011 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Abaco MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 25 2011 06:37 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge cguhr3   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 24 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Wed Aug 24 2011 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Wed Aug 24 2011 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Rob1966   Wed Aug 24 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 20 2011 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Sat Aug 20 2011 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 20 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Edski   Sat Aug 20 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 20 2011 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 20 2011 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge weathernet   Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

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