First off everyone needs to watch it.The only model that has it hitting Florida the GFDL is already south of where the system is.It also takes it over the whole land mass and going back down to a TS because of it.The GFDL is a good model but so far is out to lunch on this storm.The problem like a few have stated is how far north will the storm go.There is a ridge to the west and north of the system so in a few days the storm may slow to a crawl.The NHC has been shifting east on each update but that is not to say it will not go back west if the models change.
So in the end i think this will storm is going to get north and may slow to a crawl in 2-3 day but i just do not see any reason to go by the GFDL right now at all.I think Scott had it pegged the other day we shall see.
BUT IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW THE GFDL it would need to start going south and that is just not going to happen.
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