Can't stay up too late for the models, but will do what I can...
0z GFS running now: hour 0: Initialization looks good. hour 6 ,12: same as 18z hour 18: slightly north of 18z hour 24: same as 18z hr 30 hour 30: same as 18z hr 36 hour 36: slightly east of 18z hr 42 (Irene is moving slower than the earlier run) hour 42: slightly northeast of 18z hr 48 hour 48: slightly northeast of 18z hr 54 hour 54: slightly northeast of 18z hr 60 (nearing Central Bahamas), 2nd trough seems strong enough to keep it away from Florida hour 60: slightly northeast of 18z hr 66 hour 66: northeast of 18z hr 72 (Irene is East of Grand Bahama) hour 72: northeast of 18z hr 78 hour 84: northeast of 18z hr 90 hour 90: northeast of 18z hr 96 (Well east of Savannah) hour 96: northeast of 18z hr 102 (Well east of Charleston) hour 102: northeast of 18z hr 108 (East of Myrtle Beach) hour 108: northeast of 18z hr 114 (South of Wilmington, NC) hour 114: northeast of 18z hr 120 (Approaching Morehead City, NC) hour 120: northeast of 18z hr 126 (Landfall just east of Morehead City, NC) hour 126: Over Nags Head, NC hour 132: Offshore east of Virginia Beach hour 138: Offshore east of Delaware hour 144: Offshore east of New Jersey hour 150: Landfall Long Island, NY hour 156: Over Boston, MA hour 162: Over Portland, ME hour 168: Entering Canada near, Houlton, ME
Ending here. Florida direct hit chances dropping greatly from the GFS run, I don't expect the NHC's track to change much tomorrow.
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