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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2013
      Tue Jan 01 2013 01:00 AM

Its time once again to start the annual guesstimate of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin - and this year its no easy task. The Atlantic has recorded 19 named storms in each of the past three seasons which is an uncommonly high level of tropical cyclone activity. Some indicators, like the expected above normal SSTs in the Atlantic Basin during the upcoming hurricane season, suggest yet another busy season, however other indicators, like climatology after a series of busy seasons and neutral ENSO expectations in the Pacific 3.4 region, would support a more normal level of activity. TSR issued its initial outlook for the basin on December 5th, 2012 with a forecast for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, i.e., another rather busy season. Note that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity, but that doesn't mean that it can't happen.

Its been difficult to find a good analog year for the upcoming season and 2001 (15/9/4) is the only one that I can find that vaguely fits the anticipated ENSO SST pattern. The year with the best fit for the expected Atlantic temperature pattern is 2006 (9/4/2), so there is quite a large variation between the two analogs. I'll start with an above average seasonal forecast of 13/7/3 and perhaps by early April the murky crystal ball will clear up a little.

You can start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise your forecast as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Rationale for your forecast is strictly optional, i.e., its not required. We'll check back and see how we did at the end of the season.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jan 01 2013 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
. * * Outlook for 2013 - Final Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 vpbob21   Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Doombot!   Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 IMTechspec   Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Bloodstar   Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 DMFischer   Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JimB   Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Joeyfl   Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 ftlaudbob   Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 SchexStorm   Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 gsand   Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Wingman51   Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 weatherhead   Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 CarolinaGurl   Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 stormtiger   Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Kigeliakitten   Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 beachcrafts   Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 GlenJohnson   Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Hurricane29   Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Fletch   Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 dolfinatic   Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Storm Hunter   Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 eulogia   Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 doug   Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MichaelA   Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JoshuaK   Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 B.C.Francis   Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM

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