Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic
Tue Aug 18 2015 10:19 AM
11:00 PM EDT 23 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Danny is much weaker today, but seems to be holding at a 50mph tropical storm. The center of circulation is exposed, but convection continues to fire vigorously on the northeast quadrant. An unusually high amount of lightning can also be found in the system. It is still forecast to weaken, but storms of this small size can pull surprises.
8:00 PM EDT 22 August 2015 Update
Above: Danny is being overtaken by very dry air
Shear and dry air are starting to take a very significant toll on Danny. Over the past several hours recon has found no indications of hurricane force winds at the surface, and the 8PM Advisory now shows a - possibly generous - 65MPH tropical storm. Given the current drying trend, Danny will need to take advantage of the cooler atmosphere overnight to hopefully refire convection and build up some defenses, or could become a remnant low by this time tomorrow.
Given that the LLC is now exposed and the cyclone is in the process of becoming decoupled, the track is taking more of a due west if not west-southwest heading. Regardless of the near-term, Danny will likely still bring much needed rains and some blustery winds to the islands ahead.
2:00 PM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Recon has confirmed that Danny became a Major Hurricane today, and NHC has put out a 2PM update with advisory winds of 115MPH and a central pressure of 974mb. Shear and dry air are already starting to affect the micro-sized hurricane, and mostly weakening is now forecast for the next five days.
With luck, Danny's winds decline substantially, but the cyclone still brings much needed rains to the islands ahead.
7:00AM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Danny continues its course, official an 85MPH hurricane (Potentially stronger). It's core is very visible on satellite and very small.
Dry air and shear should begin to affect Danny Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday.
The Leeward islands of the Caribbean should continue to watch this system.
Research aircraft are scheduled to be out there this afternoon and air force recon are scheduled to be out there tomorrow afternoon.
11:00AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny has been upgraded to Hurricane Danny.
97L is also being tracked off the east coast, and another wave off Africa has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.
Folks in the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Danny over the weekend.
9:30AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny struggled most of yesterday with dry air intrusion along with a small core. On the flipside the small core allows things like the image below shows:
This is quite a drastic difference in the last few hours as Danny has started intensifying somewhat rapidly. 992 mb is the new estimate, and it appears an eye is developing, all within the last few hours.
Those in the Caribbean islands should watch Danny closely, but the system is still expected to hit a wall of shear once in the Caribbean and greatly weaken or dissipate.
The system being tracked as TD4 has become this season's fourth Tropical Storm, and the first Cape Verde system to organize this year.
The National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories on the system at 5 PM EDT.
The system is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. The name is Danny. And if the forecast is correct, it would be the most southerly hurricane to form since Tomas in 2010.
93C near Hawaii is also worth watching there.
flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach
flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach
Since Danny is a long track storm, make sure to check out the Danny Forecast Lounge for talk about long range model runs and guesses at where and when it may go along with how strong.
Info for Kilo near Hawaii