Loc: Orlando, FL
Erika Officially Dissipates, but Moving Inland
Sat Aug 29 2015 08:07 AM
1 AM 30 August 2015 Update
It appears that Erica's most recently tracked remnant LLC is now making "landfall" along the keys near Marathon tonight, prompting a Special Marine Warning for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing winds of 34 knots or greater. These showers and storms are pushing inland while spinning northeast to southwest in a cyclonic fashion around the small remnant CoC.
Old Erika LLC will likely soon merge with the boundary draped over the state, and continue to produce heavy to locally very heavy rains w/ potentially strong to severe winds.
2 PM 29 August 2015 Update
The regeneration chance for Erika is about 40%
From the Tropical Weather Outlook:
The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
This system is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However, conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida during the next couple of days.
10:AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has been downgraded to a low pressure trough just north of Cuba.
Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern and Central Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika for heavy rainfall and a small chance of regeneration once away from Cuba.
9AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center is going to issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
Florida will still likely get rain from the remnants of it.
At the 8AM National Hurricane Center Advisory, they comment that suggests Erika may be dissipating now.
With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. However, recon is still finding decent SMFR indicated winds at 40mph.
The adjusted their original 5AM position to match what the visible satellite showed this morning, putting it just north of extreme eastern Cuba.
This will make the "cone" east again when they update at 11 if it were to maintain itself. The reason it is so "lopsided" at 8AM is that they only update their forecast track every 6 hours. 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. In between they just update the storms current position and warnings Sometimes you wind up with really odd track maps, like the current one, because of center reformation.
Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.
However the 8am position does indicate the potential for a lot of rain for Florida starting late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.
Also in the far eastern Atlantic, 99L is being tracked, and may actually go over the Cape Verde islands.
And 10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.
Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach
flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach
flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach
flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 30 2015 03:31 AM)