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Cristobal slightly stronger with 45MPH winds. Flooding rainfall in the Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche regions of Mexico.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 270 (Dorian) , Major: 601 (Michael) Florida - Any: 601 (Michael) Major: 601 (Michael)
19.1N 92.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 996mb
S at 1 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4246
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Grace Forecast Lounge
      Sun Sep 06 2015 01:01 PM

12Z GFS For grace takes in on almost the exact path Erika took (and about the same intensity wise). CMC and NavGem take it north. But are less reliable. Based on the current pattern, I'd suspect the further south (and west) track is again the most likely, which will keep it weak.

Nothing really new in the models today, otherwise. NHC track looks good. Grace may have a better chance to intensify before hitting the shear than Erika did, but still will likely meet a similar fate before reaching the Eastern Caribbean. Once again until this system clears the Caribbean, it will be too early to speculate beyond that. Odds favor it just falling apart, with shear & the TUTT ahead.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Grace Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sun Sep 06 2015 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Grace Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 11 2015 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Grace Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 06 2015 01:01 PM
. * * Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Sat Sep 05 2015 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Grace Forecast Lounge DaViking   Sat Sep 05 2015 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Grace Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 05 2015 08:10 PM
. * * Re: New Wave: Invest 91L craigm   Fri Sep 04 2015 03:36 PM

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