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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1667
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low
      Fri Sep 25 2015 09:44 AM

As of daylight Friday morning the disturbance in the far eastern Pacific has clearly become two. One, our original Invest 92E, continues tracking generally northerly, with the split-off to its west now tagged Invest 93E, and heading more northwesterly.

None of the high resolution hurricane models have yet been run on Invest 92E, however the BAM (Beta and Advection Model) suite continues to take the disturbance into the Gulf, with the Shallow BAM essentially a copy of the CLIPER (a purely statistical model), tossing it into the Bay of Campeche, and then back into Mexico. The Medium and Deep BAMs take a more stacked Low up and into the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico, coming inland over the western Florida panhandle.

The associated monsoon trof in the far western Caribbean is not yet Invest tagged, and remains loosely connected to Invest 92E - almost rotating around it. The Global models continue to hone in on this feature as the focus point for a quasi-tropical Low forming in the Gulf late this weekend or early next week, with or without energy from EPAC 92E. Of these Globals, recently the GFS seems to want to break off a part of 92E and run separate, weak lows into opposite sides of the GOM, with the 92E remnant heading towards Texas, and the Caribbean trof still heading for the panhandle. An interesting and plausible scenario.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gulf Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort Fri Sep 25 2015 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Gulf Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 29 2015 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Sep 28 2015 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Sep 27 2015 03:19 AM
. * * Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low cieldumort   Fri Sep 25 2015 09:44 AM
. * * Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low doug   Fri Sep 25 2015 11:52 AM
. * * Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low doug   Thu Sep 24 2015 12:23 PM

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