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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hermine Heads for Florida
      Thu Sep 01 2016 02:22 AM

At 2AM, Tropical Storm Hermine was located about 300 miles to the west southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26.0N 87.0W with winds of 60mph gusting to 75 mph and a central pressure of 999 MB. Hermine is moving just east of due north at 6mph. Sea-Surface Temperatures are as high as 30C in the Gulf of Mexico so additional intensification to Cat I Hurricane strength seems likely. I expect that the system will move slightly to the right of the current NHC forecast track with landfall late Thursday evening southwest of Cross City and exit into the Atlantic in the Jacksonville area early Friday morning. The tropical cyclone should maintain at least Tropical Storm strength as it crosses the peninsula. The storm is a typical Gulf system with most of the wind and weather located in the eastern half of the cyclone.

Sustained Tropical Storm winds are likely in Jacksonville and possible in St Pete/Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force in rain squalls (40 to 45mph) are possible along and north of a line from Ft Myers to Ft Pierce on Thursday. Scattered to numerous tropical downpours - a few with thunder - will produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in east central Florida on Thursday and early Friday with much heavier amounts in west central and northeast Florida. Significant flooding is likely through Friday - especially in west central to northeast Florida. Hurricane force winds at landfall Thursday evening will create widespread power outages and flooded roadways in the Cross City to Jacksonville corridor. Isolated tornadoes are possible - mostly over the northern half of the peninsula - on Thursday

Most of the forecast models seem to have initialized Hermine's center too far to the west, and it is quite possible that Hermine may move slightly more to the right than I have indicated - which primarily would generate higher winds in west central Florida. A good guideline with this Tropical Storm is to extrapolate the current movement, whenever the storm turns more to the north northeast, and use that as the expected track since nothing is likely to move the storm to the left of that line.

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* Hermine Heads for Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Sep 01 2016 02:22 AM

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