Atlantic likely to remain quiet until near mid August due to shear. East Pacific very active.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any
285 (Matthew)
, Major:
4287 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
Florida - Any: 321 (Hermine)
Major:
4287 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
A modest tropical wave with an associated pouch, P39L, centered near the Ivory Coast of west Africa is set to enter the far eastern Atlantic by the end of the current week. This wave, while light on convection, has strong model support for development in the 7-14 day range.
Normally pushing it even for Lounge material, the overall environment basin wide in the Atlantic, and especially so from about the MDR - west into the Gulf, looks like it could be in a very positive phase for both convection and organization during that time frame.
Provided P39L stays south as presently forecast by several global models, there is a chance that a strong tropical cyclone would be approaching the Antilles within a week or so, and then possibly entering the Gulf of Mexico during the first week in October.
It is worth noting that since 1900, Florida has had by far the most hurricane landfalls of any state after mid-September (source: Philip Klotzbach).
This wave has been Invest tagged 97L and the title has been updated accordingly. Recon has found a closed low with 60MPH on 9/28 and the title has been updated.
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 75875
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Matthew Forecast Lounge
Edit
Reply
Quote
